1-in-11-Quadrillion Chance It Was Not Osama bin Laden Killed Last Week


osama-bin-laden-deadU.S. officials are certain Osama bin Laden is dead after DNA and other tests, saying  there was a one-in-11.8-quadrillion chance of mistaken identity.

CIA specialists first compared photographs of the corpse to photographs of bin Laden and then reviewed a DNA sample against a “comprehensive profile derived from bin Laden’s large, extended family,” a senior intelligence official told reporters.

As a result, there was no doubt that the team of U.S. Navy SEALs that raided a compound in Pakistan on May 1 had killed the al-Qaida leader, the official said.

“Based on that analysis, the DNA is unquestionably his. The possibility of a mistaken identity on the basis of this analysis is approximately one in a 11.8 quadrillion,” said the official.

The al-Qaida network has also confirmed in a statement that bin Laden is dead.

{The Montreal Gazette/Matzav.com Newscenter}


  1. Even with these astronomical odds, people will believe what they want to believe. That’s why there are atheists, when the odds that the entire universe, filled with endless plan and purpose, came into being by itself are far less than one in 11 quadrillion.

  2. Daniel you have a profound misunderstanding of probablity the two examples are not comparable. (although Im not arguing with the point youve made) you cant use probablity to prove wether something happned or not, after the fact.
    In Bin Laden’s case lets say he suddenly surfaces and says surprise Im here. The fact that the DNA match of the dead guy leaves a 1 in 11 quadrilion chance that taht was in fact bin laden, becomes meaningless if Bin laden shows up. We dont say hey bin laden you are actually dead since the odds of you being alive are so small.
    To put it another way, if we take a period in the past, the odds of you being here are tiny. Your great great great grandparents have to meet (all 1,099,511,627,776 of them at a point in time “only” 40 generations ago) their genetic material has to divide up into cells in the right proprtions a pregnancy has to occur, and then again for the next genration and the next. The odds of you being alive today are ridiculously small, to say the least.
    however that does not prove that you dont exist.

  3. #2,

    I understand probability better than you think. However, I’m not offended, because I believe that your comment was generated randomly by computer. Hamavin Yavin. 😉

  4. Daniel cute comment, though that is a seperate (albeit related issue)
    The error you made is comparing probabilty before an event takes place to afterwards.
    to illustrate suppose their is a raffle with 11 trillion entires you would correctly tell me “dont buy a ticket its almost impossible to win, you are wasting your money, as the chances of winning are ridiculously small” This is true BEFOE THE EVENT, however if i tell you “I entered this raffle that had such small chances, and won!” You cant say “No you didnt since the odds of winning are so small” Yet that is the what you are doing in your first comment. If Bin laden is actually still alive (the odds of which are 1 in 11 trillion, a very unlikely event to say the least) all the odds in the world cant prove him dead
    The point you raise in the second comment changes the proababilty BEFORE THE FACT. It is comparable to the same raffle as before though with a twist: ticket after ticket is being chosen at a fast rate for all eternity. This changes the probabilty BEFORE THE EVENT OCCURS. you would be wise to enter this raffle since the proability of winning is 1! its virtually certain

  5. I think you have to look at how much cover up there has been about this event. Based on some other facts such as statement by some people of authority who suggeted he was dead long time ago. And other facts such as Obama was really sinking and needed a big boost. And then we see how this whole event was staged, and quickly wraped up all suggest something fishy. It would have taken only a nature step to bring and show his body publically and have free media confirm it. I guarentee it that it would have helped Obama much more then this fishy deal! And another thing that adds to the case of it not being true is that no one from the mainstream has questioned the official version of the story even though it is flawed.