Analysis: The Real Crash Is Dead Ahead As 2008 Is Forgotten


wall-streetBy Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch

“Facebook will become the poster child for the current social-media bubble,” warns economist Gary Shilling in his latest Forbes column, “just as was for the dot-com bubble.” Yes, Wall Street is repeating the 2000 dot-com crash as today’s social-media bubble crashes and burns.

Think history folks: Remember 2000-2002? The economy suffered a 30-month recession and a brutal bear market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average peaked at 11,722, then crashed, losing over 4,000 points dropping below 7,500, down more than 43%, with massive losses of more than $8 trillion in market cap.

But it gets worse: Shilling’s bluntly warning: “If we aren’t already in a recession, we’re getting very close.” Yes, he’s more reserved than Nobel economist Paul Krugman, whose latest book goes beyond hinting that the America economy is repeating the 2000-2002 recession, His title says it all: “End This Depression Now!”

But the scariest fact is that America’s warring politicians, CEOs and Super Rich can’t even see the obvious link between the 2012 social-media bubble and the 2008 Wall Street credit bubble that nearly bankrupt our monetary system and forced Congress and the Fed into bailing out our too-big-to-manage banks to an estimated $29.7 trillion in cash, credits, cheap money loans and debt relief.

But, unfortunately, the banks still haven’t learned the lessons of history. Instead, they dug in their heels, spending hundreds of million on lobbyists, fighting all reform efforts, went back to business-as-usual, sabotaging America and ultimately themselves.

Déjà vu: here we are four years later. Again mired in another presidential election, right back where we were in the summer of 2008. In denial, trapped in lies and mean-spirited theatrics, ignoring warnings, blinded, obsessed about the smell of election victories no matter the cost, even if it triggers a recession.

Yes, déjà vu all over again. Four short years. We forget. We’re back repeating the same buildup scenario to another meltdown.

Worse, bankers, politicians and billionaires just don’t seem to care. And you get the foreboding feeling that it really doesn’t matter who wins the election. This war will go on till 2016: For one party and their billionaire super PACs will do anything to hold on to the presidency, and the other, backed by their billionaire super PACs, will do anything to regain it.

Politics is now a deadly blood sport that reminds us of the “Hunger Games.”

As if 2008 never happened, creating the granddaddy of all bubbles

Yes, another crash is coming soon because we’re back playing the same speculative games as we did for years prior to the 2008 crash. Nothing’s changed. And when we collapse, it will be because America’s leaders never do learn the lessons of history. And never will, if you get the meaning of economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff who surveyed “800 Years of Financial Folly” and saw nothing but repetitive cycles.

In a BusinessWeek editorial, Peter Coy and Rouben Farzad described the latest cycle in this eternal drama of the bubbles:

“It’s as if 2008 never happened. Once again the worlds investors are pumping up bubbles that will probably explode in their faces. After the popping of a real estate bubble led to the first global recession since the 1930s, world markets are frothing like shaken Champagne. Pundits claim to have spotted price increases that are unsupported by economic fundamentals in assets ranging from U.S. farmland to Israeli biotech to Australian housing to Chinese cemetery sites. Commodities have soared. Global junk-bond issuance hit a record … this is the granddaddy of them all, an almost-encompassing bubble right at the heart of monetary systems.”

Yes, for the past four years our great free-market system has been blowing many new bubbles, like the Facebook bubble that we saw coming months ago. It will soon halt Chairman Bernanke’s nonstop printing press. This bubble will sink like a mafia stiletto deep into the “heart of the monetary systems” worldwide, proving something Nassim Taleb said about Bernanke when Obama reappointed him in 2009: “He doesn’t even know he doesn’t understand how things work,” that his methods make “homeopath and alternative healers look empirical and scientific.”


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  1. Well said. These are the kinds of truths that we would rather not hear – and the kind that will get us in the end. And note that he says it doesn’t matter who wins the election – the problem is structural, not a matter of personal political leadership.

    Business in the US used to be about business. Now it’s about the stock market and quarterly earnings report, which is to say, CEO pay.

    Taleb is right on the money. Read “The Black Swan” and weep for the victims of the next crash – that is, you and me.

  2. Why is the economy so bad today? Why is the whole world going down? For the past thousands of years there was always Avoda zara in the world-from the molech to the baal to the asheira tree etc…-todays avoda zara is MONEY, we are a servant to money, we serve money, we bow down to money, we let money talk & rule us. Thus we leave Hashem no choice but to take it away from us Rachmana L’tzlan. But you can still save yourself from going down. if a person can use his money the right way & remember that it all comes from Hashem & it was just loaned to him (even though he worked for it), then he is the perfect person to continue holding Hashem’s money.