Demographer: ‘Israel to Become a Religious State in 19 Years’


chareidimArutz Shevah reports: Professor Arnon Sofer, chair of Geo-strategy at the University of Haifa, has published a report predicting a religious majority in Israel by 2030.

Professor Sofer sees this as a negative development.

His study assumes natural growth of 6-7% in the hareidi-religious sector, which would lead to a chareidi population of more than one million by 2030. The national religious sector, which is involved actively in all spheres of Israeli productivity, is not given separate treatment, leading to a skewing of the predicted outcomes.

In one possible outcome, says Professor Sofer, the secular majority would band together in time to create a “secular revolution.”

If not, Sofer said, the second outsome would be the rise of a religious majority that would force the secular minority to learn to live in a religious world.

A third possible outcome would be the annexation of Judea and Samaria, which Sofer feels would lead to “the continued weakening of democracy in the face of anti-democratic forces, a Knesset that does not function, and growing anarchy.”

Sofer assumes that the chareidi-religious population would continue to have relatively low employment despite demographic changes and despite statistics that show a rapidly increasing enrollment of chareidi students in work training programs.

“As the chareidi population grows, so does the gap between the chareidi population and the rest of the country, and greater sums are necessary in order to close that gap. The difference in participation in the work force not only creates a complete dependency on the working class, but also a growing inequality, dissatisfaction, bitterness… among tax-payers,” he declared.

Other changes Sofer predicted in case of a religious majority: a school system that teaches Torah, a justice system based in Jewish law (halakha), and the disappearance of many of today’s popular entertainment programs. The changes would lead many secular Israelis to leave the country, he said.

He called to prevent the scenarios he predicted by forcing all schools to teach democratic and Western values. “If the decision-makers do not wake up, the Zionist vision will reach a tragic end with the people of Israel’s return to exile, to again face anti-Semitism and assimilation,” was his far-reaching conclusion.

Professor Sofer has published similarly gloomy predictions in the past, including a famous 1987 claim that by 2000 Israel would no longer be a Jewish state. Israel maintains a strong Jewish majority of 80%, similar to the situation when Sofer’s prediction was made.

Read more: Arutz Shevah.

{Arutz Shevah/}


  1. The “Chair of Geo-strategy” fails to stop and think for a minute, that maybe, just maybe, these religious people whose ideology, population, and influence, he wishes to dilute, are not as crazy as he thinks they are.

    Maybe there really is someone sitting in a much more important “Chair”-who can strategize alot better than him, who is orchestrating the demise of Zionism from within and from without.

    If only he can separate himself from his love affair with his hedonistic lifestyle, and allow himself to experience the beauty of a Torah life just a little bit, then he might understand why the demographics are changing.

    The greater rate of child-bearing among Torah Jews, as opposed to their secular brethren, is just part of the reason. The other factor is the proliferation of Baalei Tshuva through the efforts of Lev L’Achim, Shuvu, and the like, who have been blessed with success beyond their wildest dreams, by the “Chair” of World Affairs.

    May Hashem open his eyes and heart together with all our secular brethren, so that we all have the zchus to greet Moshiach enthusiastically and proudly, bekorov.



  3. Did anyone ever notice, that it is the ones with the Titles, are the most blinded in their thinking. They think it gives them the license to slander Jews and their way of life. These ELITIST, think that their way of life is THE LIFE. They think that their success is there own. They do not realize, that not only they exist because if the Torah Jew, but the Whole World exist, because of Torah. #1 Leib is obviously more optimistic then I am (got to work on that Middah). The Leftist Elite will never change their view on Torah. I will repeat Leib’s words: May Hashem open his/their eyes and hearts together with all our secular brethren, so that we all have the zchus to greet Moshiach enthusiastically and proudly, bekorov.

  4. If i’m not mistaken, israel was a completely religious country at the time of the Bais Hamikdosh, and they did very well.The only reason why we lost it was due to the secularist such as Pro Fresser Are-None Sooooo-Far.