Euro Model Botched Blizzard Forecast



The National Weather Service incorrectly forecast 30 inches of snow for New York because they used the wrong forecasting model.

The impact and path of the blizzard was forecast based on a European model, rather than their own system, which had actually been upgraded in recent weeks.

“Too much trust was based on a single model, and there was not enough emphasis on uncertainty,” said Jeff Masters, chief meteorologist at Weather Underground. “The European model was about 100 miles off. That is a big deal for a heavy snow situation.”

The National Weather Service’s Global Forecast System actually did correctly predict the blizzard’s worst would not hit New York City. Read more at the Wall Street Journal.

{Andy Newscenter}


  1. Oops.

    As for the National Weather Service correctly predicting the blizzard’s (blizzard, what blizzard?) worst would not hit New York City, that’s like “correctly” predicting that someone won’t hit the bull’eye at 1,000 yards when they can’t hit the side of a barn at 10 feet.

  2. Never mind there was major financial losses – nearly half billion all across. Not even an apology! It sounds like Obamacare’s web site that cost nearly 3/4 billion of taxpayer dollars and didn’t work!

  3. What economic loss? what wasn’t bought yesterday will be bought today or tomorrow. The work will need to get done eventually, so people will just work longer hours over the next short time frame to get it done. there may be a loss of some sort, but not to that extent.