Israel Estimates ‘Only’ 300 Deaths in 3-Week War


LA 169027.ME.1121.border-ocean.01.DPB.jpgThe heads of Israel’s defense system estimate that if Israel is targeted by missiles from neighboring countries during a theoretical war in 2012, 300 people will be killed in a three week period, according to a Channel 10 News report on Monday.

The report said that the ministers in the Israeli Security Cabinet were given this estimate during a briefing that was held on Sunday. Previous assessments talked about tens of thousands of casualties on the Israeli side.

According to the report, the briefing dealt with the most extreme scenario and referred to a war that may take place in 2012, before the Iron Dome anti-missile system is fully deployed. The ministers were reportedly informed that in three weeks of constant war, thousands of rockets would land in Israel, mostly from Lebanon and Syria and some from Gaza.

The ministers were told during the briefing that missiles from Iran may land in Israel as well, but that Iran’s ability in terms of conventional missiles is not great.

The most extreme estimate, according to the Channel 10 report, is that in these three weeks less than 300 Israelis will be killed. The number is high but lower than what was said in the past, the report noted. Until now, the estimates ranged between an existential threat to Israel and anywhere from 500 to 50,000 deaths.

In comparison, noted Channel 10, before the first Gulf War in 1991, defense officials estimated that then-Iraqi president Saddam Hussein will try to launch 40 missiles at Israel and that there would be 120 fatalities. Hussein ended up firing 42 missiles at Israel and there was one fatality.

Read more: Arutz Sheva

{Arutz Sheva/ Newscenter}


  1. Are you all insane ?

    I have been trying to get through to many people for many years about the folly of their thinking. I do this all for free as well. Any strategist saying that it is ok if 300 Israelis, 3,000 Americans and 300,000 Iranians die in a “little” war is insane. Obviously if certain red lines are crossed Israel and its allies will need to use the military option, but there are a multitude of positive moves that can made before that date which will lead to the optimal outcome.

    Am I getting through ?

  2. To a ben Torah, even one Jewish life is precious. This is why we oppose Zionism. To a Zionist, 300 dead Jews is no big deal, as their Medinah is more important to them than Jewish life.

  3. That’s assuming the missile warheads are high explosives.

    If they are chemical the casualty rate could be twice as high, R”L.

    It they are biological or nuclear, R”L, all bets are off. Iron Dome is ineffective against the “collateral” effects of attempting to take out these warheads.

    Hashem Yishmor.

  4. If their predictions are as good as the ones they made before the Yom Kippur war, the Lebanon War, the Second Lebanon War….

    Well, we’d better get ready for the refugees ch”v when Tel Aviv gets levelled with “only” 300 casualties.

    These guys are out of their minds – if they still have minds.

  5. to #1 are u pro Obama, once Iran gets a bomb nothing will stop them, there’s a time limit and once they get they’ll use it we have to stop them,and to all of you going nuts about the numbers well when your the prime minister you have to think about the whole country either the whole country or 300, for sure 300 and that’s a estimate with hashem it could be 0 and some Arabs/Muslims could be killed in isreal from the bombs…

  6. Frankly, I am astonished by this estimate of mortality. The IDF plans and caters for 2.5% casualties in any operation.

  7. Only 300 dead if Israel strikes Iran? What are the leaders smoking? Can we say 100,000’s dead in Israel alone? And a global war with eventual use of nuclear weapons.

    There is no evidence Iran has the bomb nor that they will make one. But hey, let’s start ww3 anyways. Maybe if the west had not been so stupid in their hardline negotiations, maybe we might have reached some way to work with Iran and monitor them.

    It is pure idiocy to think a strike on Iran will be a 2 or 3 week problem and then everything is fine.