Party Affiliation Doesn’t Matter In Super-Jewish District

By Orthodox Pundit

“When it comes to the Orthodox Jewish district, a theoretical Democratic candidate did better than three-to-one than a Republican in the CUNY/New York World analysis,” Colby Hamilton reported yesterday,

based on 2010 elections results. While the study may be helpful in a conventional district, but not in an unconventional Orthodox district.

Dov Hikind’s 48^th assembly district – a major portion of the Super-Jewish district – is strongest proof. 30,744 – 59.6 – of the enrolled voters were democrats as of November 2010, versus 9,225 – 17.3 – republicans. The democratic republican ratio here is almost as strong as in the Super Jewish district. Yet, McCain-Palin won over Obama-Biden by a staggering 18,924 versus 7,649 – 70.7 vs. 28.6.

I would also be tempted to dismiss it as an anomaly due to Obama’s perceived Middle East stances, if Paladino wouldn’t have won over Cuomo7,986-7,663. Also, Donavan won over AG Schniederman 2 to 1, and Senator Gillibrand lost by a similar margin.

They clearly lean republican. Their registration as democrats and electing democrats is solely for political expediency. Democratic primaries are where most local races are decided, and they want to be a part of the process, and a republican city council member is virtually worthless, so they will elect democrats.

In national and statewide elections, they vote their conscience, and republicans generally do well. In local elections, where the candidates and their positions are less known, they will elect officials based on community leaders’ wishes, the candidates’ chances, and their support for the community, without any regards to party lines. This calculus until now favored democrats, because Orthodox haven’t had a chance to sway elections in places where republicans matter.

Bottom line, in local races no party can take them for granted.

The Super-Jewish district is the first time where political expediency may favor republicans over democrats. Thus, republicans have an excellent shot to get it into their column come November.

As of the current round, Lew Fidler is the clear front runner for Kruger’s seat. He’s a known in the community, and Storobin have yet to get a single community leader in the non-Russian Orthodox community behind him.

But Fidler haven’t nailed it down yet. The establishment is not firmly behind him. The two Borough Park Orthodox elected officials – even the councilman strongly behind his candidacy – have yet to endorse, and the leading Askunim are still wavering between the clear front runner and majority leader Skelos’ pick.

In essence, it’s clear that the seat is Lew Fidler’s to lose, but it is still a possibility. Should Storobin get the community leadership behind him.

Whoever wins, can expect a rematch with an Orthodox candidate, possibly Cheskel Bennet, on the Republican line. Bennet, an Agudah activist, will probably have a better chance against Storobin, a novice in local politics. This is why I believe that Agudah favors a Storobin caretaker-ship on the seat until November, and will jump in to support him if they will see an opening.
Update: Colby posted my rebuttal, and this is what he have to on it:

“These points are well taken. OP’s arguments are certainly the ones Senate Republicans had in mind when they went and drew the seat they did. The district’s political leanings have far more to do with individual candidates and the issues inside the community than party registration.

“The problem, though, is that senate districts are significantly bigger than assembly districts. The larger the seat, the more diverse the voting pool. In a place like Brooklyn, that means bringing in people that are actually Democratic voters.”

{Orthodox Pundit/Matzav.com Newscenter}