The good news for President Obama is his popular support among blacks is holding steady at 91%. The bad news is no other group of potential voters likes him that much. In fact, 29 days before his first midterm elections, the Democrat’s approval ratings remain mired below 50%.A new Gallup Poll this morning finds his approval rating for September was 45%, almost the same as August’s 44%. Obama’s not exceeded the crucial 50% level in a single month so far this year.
Since Obama’s name is not on any ballot Nov. 2, the proportions of Americans who like or dislike the fellow on Oct. 1 of a midterm election year shouldn’t matter, in theory. However, history indicates otherwise.
Presidents with approval ratings below 50% at midterm time see their party suffer substantial losses in its congressional membership, regardless of how much explaining and blaming the president attempts in the campaign leading up to what becomes, in effect, a referendum on the president.
And since Democrats currently hold substantial majorities in both the Senate and House of Representatives, they have substantially more seats to lose. A switch of 39 House and 10 Senate seats would give control of both houses to the Republicans for the first time since they lost it in 2007 after 12 years of GOP majorities.
Democrats (79%) and liberals (75%) still like Obama a lot.
But after that, his approval percentage goes to the deep south. Support among even young people is down: 57%. Hispanics: 55%. Moderates: 54%. Unmarrieds: 53%. Easterners: 52%. Women: 47%. Midwesterners and Westerners: 45%.
Men: 43%. Southerners: 41%. Independents: 40%. Marrieds: 39%. Seniors: 38%. Whites: 36%. Conservatives: 23%.
Amazingly, among Republicans Obama still manages to hold the support of 12%.