Romney 50%, Obama 46% Among Likely Voters


obama-romney1Half of likely voters now prefer Mitt Romney for president and 46% back President Barack Obama in Gallup interviewing through Monday.

Presidential Race 2012, Likely Voters

While Romney’s four-percentage-point advantage is not statistically significant, he has consistently edged ahead of Obama each of the past several days in Gallup’s seven-day rolling averages conducted entirely after the Oct. 3 presidential debate. Prior to that debate — regarded as a decisive Romney win by political experts and Americans who watched it — Romney averaged less than a one-point lead over Obama among likely voters.

The latest result, from Oct. 9-15, is based on 2,723 likely voters drawn from more than 3,100 registered voters.

The effect of the Denver debate on voter preferences is also seen in the trend among registered voters. Prior to the debate, in late September/early October, Obama generally led Romney by five or six points among registered voters. Since the debate, the margin has been three points or less.

Presidential Race 2012, Registered Voters

Since 2008, Obama Down the Most Among Whites, Middle-Aged Voters, and Southerners

Romney’s four-point edge over Obama in likely voters’ preferences for president contrasts with Obama’s seven-point win over McCain in the 2008 election. To gain an understanding of the underlying dynamics of this shift, the following analysis contrasts the Obama versus McCain margins across major subgroups in 2008 with the Obama versus Romney margins in the full week of Gallup interviewing conducted Oct. 9-15. This shows that compared with 2008, Obama’s support is down the most among voters in the South, 30- to 49-year-olds, those with four-year college degrees, postgraduates, men, and Protestants. He has also slipped modestly among whites, Easterners, women, and Catholics.

Obama’s support is roughly the same now as in 2008 among 18- to 29-year-olds, seniors, nonwhites, and voters in the West and Midwest; however, he has not gained support among any major group compared with 2008.

In order to compare Obama’s support today with 2008, the data in the graph below for both 2008 and 2012 are re-percentaged on the basis of support for the Democratic and Republican candidates only, excluding “no opinion” responses and support for minor third-party candidates. The 2008 results reflect an additional adjustment to align Gallup’s final likely voter result with the election outcome.

Source: GALLUP

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  1. whatever we might prefer,stick with facts

    Barack Obama gained ground on Republican rival Mitt Romney for the third straight day, leading 46 percent to 43 percent, according to the Reuters/Ipsos daily tracking poll released on Tuesday.

    Released hours before the presidential contenders face off for their second debate, the poll showed the number of undecided voters had increased, indicating a drop of support for Mr. Romney among the coveted voting bloc.

    The poll showed that Mr. Obama has recovered some ground after a poor showing in his first presidential debate. After dropping below Mr. Romney in the wake of the Oct. 3 debate, Mr. Obama regained the lead on Sunday and has increased that by one percentage point each day this week.

    “I think what we’re seeing is after the first debate Romney definitely saw a surge. A lot of his surge wasn’t coming from Obama voters, it was coming from undecided voters, which is exactly where both candidates are seeking support,” Ipsos pollster Julia Clark said.

    “Now, we’ve actually seen the Romney bump decrease again a little bit,” Ms. Clark said.

    She said the number of people who have changed their minds and moved back to the undecided column took two percentage points off Mr. Romney’s support and one point from Mr. Obama. Undecided voters now account for about 13 per cent of likely voters, compared to 10 per cent on Monday.

    Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama meet at New York’s Hofstra University on Tuesday night for a town hall-style debate where the questions will all be asked from undecided voters who have been selected to be part of the audience.

    “It’s a great place to be entering a debate tonight,” said Ms. Clark, noting that the undecided voters will be able to ask questions on topics that interest them. “Tonight’s debate will undoubtedly impact on some of them.”

    About 10 per cent of the registered voters surveyed – a group of 178 people – said they had voted early. Among early voters, 59 per cent said they had voted for Mr. Obama, while 39 percent said they had voted for Mr. Romney.

    The online survey of 1,846 likely voters was conducted between Friday and Tuesday. The precision of the poll is measured using a credibility interval, which is plus or minus 2.6 percentage points for likely voters.

  2. It’s a setup by the left. They anticipated a strong Obama performance (at least compared to first debate), so the post debate polls will show Obama up by two and they’ll say that Obama is the comeback kid who gained 6 points on Romney in a day and thus the Romney Campaign is in total disarray…. and can Romney even recover after this….

    It’s a trap!