Surprise Iowa Poll: Romney, Bachmann Tied in Iowa


romneyFormer Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Minnesota congresswoman Michele Bachmann sit atop the standings in the year’s first Des Moines Register Iowa Poll on the Republican presidential field.

Romney, the national front-runner and a familiar face in Iowa after his 2008 presidential run, attracts support from 23 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers. Bachmann, who will officially kick off her campaign in Iowa on Monday, nearly matches him, with 22 percent.

“She’s up there as a real competitor and a real contender,” said Republican pollster Randy Gutermuth, who is unaffiliated with any of the presidential candidates. “This would indicate that she’s going to be a real player in Iowa.”

Former Godfather’s CEO Herman Cain, who has never held public office but has found a following among tea party supporters, comes in third, with 10 percent.

The other candidates tested register in single digits: former U.S. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and Texas Rep. Ron Paul, 7 percent each; former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, 6 percent; former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, 4 percent; and former Utah Gov. and ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, 2 percent.

Pawlenty has spent 26 days in Iowa during this election cycle, has hired an A-list team of Iowa campaign operatives and was the first major candidate to air television ads in Iowa.

“If I were the Pawlenty camp, I would be enormously concerned about this poll,” said Jennifer Duffy of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

The Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll is a closely watched indicator of political viability in the leadoff caucus state in the presidential nominating process. The Iowa caucuses are scheduled for Feb. 6.

Veteran campaign watchers caution that it’s early: Candidates’ fortunes will rise and fall. Indeed, 69 percent of respondents said they could still be persuaded to support a candidate other than their first choice.

The poll, conducted by Selzer & Co. Inc. of Des Moines, was based on telephone interviews with 400 likely Republican caucus-goers June 19 to 22. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

{Des Moines Register/ Newscenter}


  1. My choice:

    #1. Rick Santorum
    #2. Herman Cain
    #3. Tim Pawlenty
    #4. Newt Gingrich
    #5. Mitt Romney
    #6. Michele Bachmann
    #7. Ron Paul

  2. Good news for real republicans! romney is a joke of a republican! but im still waiting for the real presidential canidate RICK PERRY! he is realy the only one that can beat obama!

  3. Jorgen, check out Cain’s recent interview with Chris Wallace on FoxNews Sunday. I’m sorry, but he is not qualified to be President of the United States, no matter how energetic of a speaker he is and no matter how much he believes in his principles.

    Also check out Pawlenty’s interview. While I like him in general, he was made to look foolish about his ridiculously optimistic economic plan.

    Romney has major executive experience (both in business and government) and has the best chance of wooing crucial independent voters in a general election. I strongly believe that he has the best chance of beating Obama and will make a good president.

  4. Perry gets an F on illegal immigration (he signed a bill that would grant illegal aliens instate tuition rates). Bachman is the real deal. And to New Yorker: America is a big country. People outside NY are allowed to vote. Only the corners (coasts) of America are liberal, but the central heartland is very conservative (except the major cities). You remind me of the NYers that say that they’ve never met a conservative in their lives. Quite amusing.

  5. They are all weak, political hacks who have no vision or enough idealism to change the status quo. Other than Herman Cain, for that very reason, no other candidate will be any different than the Bushbama years.

  6. I’ve actually been impressed by Santorum. He’s a smart guy and well thought out. He seems to be honest and humble enough to admit past mistakes. He also has executive experience in business. Perhaps he’s a bit too much of a social conservative idealogue for my taste, and that certainly would hurt him in a general election. He also comes off as a bit whiny. But personally, I like him and he’s in my top 3 as well.

  7. While I’m on the subject, I might as well finish the list.
    Gingrich is probably the most intellectually suited to be president, but he just does not have the charisma (or reputation) to win an election. I’d love to see him in a major cabinet post though!
    Bachmann is too far to the right. I don’t feel that Tea Party has a balanced approach. (Who knows with this economy, though, what the American people will want!) She also does not have the experience at the federal level to prove that she would be an effective president. I could see her being a major player in, say, 2020, though.
    Ron Paul is an uncharismatic extremist idealogue who is out of touch with the reality of today’s world. Although I too would love a stronger dollar, I wouldn’t vote for Paul even against Obama. A joke in a general election; nebuch on the Republican Party if they nominate him.

  8. Another comment on Pawlenty: I think he’s a smart, rational guy, but I don’t like how he’s backtracked from former positions that seemed well thought out (such as global warming, etc.)just to appeal to the Republican base. Personality too parve. Perhaps a good choice for VP.

  9. Personally, my preferred ticket is Rick Santorum coupled with Eric Cantor, though I would be.

    And Gingrich flip-flopped a bit. I go for Cain precisely because I’m that “ideologue” you dislike.

    I don’t like Paul – he’s an isolationist libertarian kook – but I would probably vote for him over Obama.

    As for Perry, I don’t think he’s secessionist, but he seems to be pro-nullification. (Your average person does not know what the Nullification Crisis of the 1830s was. Perry seems to be taking a stand dangerously close to that of Thomas Jefferson and John C. Calhoun.)

    May the best man win!