The Real Poll Numbers: Clinton 43%, Trump 40%, Johnson 8%, Stein 2%

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Is the air going out of Hillary Clinton’s post-convention bounce?

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online White House Watch survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows the Democratic nominee with 43% support to Donald Trump’s 40%. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson picks up eight percent (8%) of the vote, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein trails with two percent (2%). Four percent (4%) like some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Last week, the first weekly survey following the Democratic national convention, found Clinton with 44%, Trump at 40%, Johnson at six percent (6%) and Stein with three percent (3%). It was Clinton’s biggest lead over her Republican rival since June. Trump reached a high of 44% support in mid-July.

Clinton continues to earn more support among voters in her party (82%) than Trump does in his (74%). But the GOP nominee still holds a slight lead – 37% to 32% – among voters not affiliated with either major political party. Both Clinton and Trump draw just over 10% support from voters in the opposing party.

Johnson has nine percent (9%) GOP support, three percent (3%) of the Democratic vote and 15% of unaffiliated voters. Stein gets the votes of one percent (1%) of Republicans, one percent (1%) of Democrats and three percent (3%) of unaffiliateds.

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on August 9-10, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

[Rasmussen Reports analysts Amy Holmes and Fran Coombs are available for interested media. Please call 732-776-9777 ext. 205 for interviews.]

President Obama last week denounced Trump as “unfit to serve” and “woefully unprepared to do this job.” Nearly half of voters agree, but they’re not so sure Clinton is up to the job either.

Clinton leads by 12 points among women, while Trump has a five-point advantage among men. The Democrat has a double-digit lead among those under 40. Trump is ahead only slightly among older voters.

Johnson runs best among men and younger voters.

Trump gets 20% black support to Clinton’s 72%. She also leads by 13 among other minority voters, while her GOP rival is ahead by six points among whites.

Clinton leads among those who work for the government, while private sector employees are evenly divided between the two major candidates.

The economy remains the number one issue for all voters this election cycle, but Republicans are a lot more worried about national security than Democrats and unaffiliated voters are.

Clinton and many other Democrats avoid using the term “radical Islamic terrorism” publicly because they believe it implicates all Muslims for the actions of extremists. Trump and many Republicans place high importance on the language, saying an enemy cannot be defeated if it is not identified by name. Sixty percent (60%) of voters continue to believe the United States is at war with radical Islamic terrorism.

Wall Street Journal columnist Peggy Noonan wrote earlier this year that the only person who can beat Trump is Trump himself, and so far voters think that’s exactly what he’s doing.

But GOP voters still prefer a party that’s more like Trump than one that’s more like House Speaker Paul Ryan, the highest ranking Republican in Congress.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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4 COMMENTS

  1. There are no “real” poll numbers. Polls are inaccurate, biased, and useless – except for political hype.

    The only poll that matters is the one citizens participate in on November 8.

  2. Thank G-d
    Today’s poll the LA times shows Trump only one point behind Hillary. Yesterday he was 3 points behind. Also many many people are afraid to tell anyone they are voting for Trump. I made an experiment this past Sunday. I drove in manhattan and parked my van on the upper west side. I put up signs on my car that read stop terrorism vote Trump. I was amazed how many people came over to tell me how secretly they are voting Trump. They are all afraid of the violent meshugoyim that are former sanders supporters. Rest assured the democrats know this and are running scared. They are using the media to try to tarnish trump. It won’t work because 80 per cent don’t trust the media. They hear trump is this and said this. But Hillary pay for play,a democratic convention with a Palestinian flag and no American flag,sorrounded by extreme haters like al Sharpthon and various radical Arab activists, Etc.
    let’s daven strong that Trump wins.

  3. My cousin who works for the Fed told me that his military colleagues still prefer Trump over Hillary, as problematic and nuts as Trump is

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