A Powerful, Messy Winter Storm Is Charging Up The East Coast

A major winter storm has been rolling across a 2,000-mile stretch of the Lower 48, causing travel disruptions and dangerous driving conditions. After dumping up to a foot of snow across the Upper Midwest and Corn Belt on Friday and slipping into the Mid-South on Saturday, the Eastern Seaboard is next in line for a wintry mix along the coast and plowable snowfall inland.

More than 80 million people are under winter weather alerts Sunday from Mississippi to Maine. Snow and ice are affecting southern areas unaccustomed to such weather, including northern parts of Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia, as well as the interior Carolinas.

Winter storm warnings are in effect along the Appalachians, where a broad 5 to 10 inches of snow is possible. Closer to the Interstate 95 corridor, winter weather advisories are more common, because of the threat of mixing, which would reduce snowfall totals.

Ice storm warnings are up in parts of the Carolinas, where as much as a quarter- to half- inch of ice accretion is possible. The slick glaze could be even more problematic than heavy snowfall.

On Sunday morning, the storm was centered over central Alabama along Interstate 59-20. Since low-pressure systems spin clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere, an arc of Gulf of Mexico moisture was spiraling northwestward to the east of the storm’s center, wrapping through the Carolinas and Tennessee before curling back into northern Mississippi. Snow was falling in the cool air wraparound. Flurries were detected by radar along the Mississippi-Alabama border just one county north of Mobile within 60 miles of the Gulf Coast.

In Mississippi, heavy snow on the back side of the departing low has contributed to snowfall rates of one to two inches per hour, leading to very impressive totals northeast of the state capital. Multiple observers in Goshen Springs, just east of the Ross Barnett Reservoir, reported half a foot of snow on the ground around sunrise Sunday. Only 0.1 inches had been reported as of 1:47 a.m..

Little Rock saw one to two inches of snow, but significantly more fell in the higher elevations of the Ozarks to the northwest. A foot was reported in Canaan and Harrison, Ark., with 7.5 inches east of Interstate 65 in Bergman.

A mix of rain and snow was falling in Nashville, where a winter storm warning is in effect. The storm has trended slightly warmer at the mid-levels of the atmosphere, fostering more mixed and wet precipitation rather than pure snow. Totals of 1 to 3 inches can be expected.

Snow was tough to come by farther east, except in the mountainous terrain of northeast Georgia and the western parts of the Carolinas. A total of 5.6 inches had accumulated in Clarkesville, Ga., with 10 inches in Brevard, N.C., southwest of Asheville. Greenville, S.C. had about half a foot as of 8 a.m. Eastern time.

In warm, humid air ahead of the storm in South Florida, a line of severe thunderstorms was crossing the peninsula. A tornado watch was in effect until 3 p.m. for the zone including Miami and Fort Lauderdale. Social media indicated a damaging tornado had struck near Fort Myers.

Cold air was in place at the surface along the Eastern Seaboard to start Sunday morning. Washington, under a winter weather advisory, dropped below 20 degrees overnight for the first time in a record 1,078 days. It sat at 18 degrees as of 8 a.m. New York was 11 degrees, and Boston was 8.

Despite the antecedent frigid conditions, the cinnamon bun swirl of a storm will entrain a tongue of mild air at the mid-levels of the atmosphere as it makes the trek north. That “warm nose” at 5,000 feet above the ground will flip precipitation over to sleet, freezing rain and, eventually, all rain very quickly as cold air is scoured out of the region.

In the nation’s capital, a quick inch or two of snow is likely before a transition ensues between 6 p.m. and 8 p.m.; Baltimore will see mostly wet precipitation by 10 p.m., and New York and Boston will be hard pressed to see any snow before rain arrives overnight. While there could be some minor icing in pockets along the Interstate 95 corridor, the bulk of the more wintry issues will be focused to the west away from I-95.

There’s even a chance that southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island, including the Cape and the islands, could see heavy thunderstorms and an outside chance of severe thunderstorms, firmly nestled within the “warm sector” on the mild side of the system.

The exception will be in the central parts of the Carolinas, including near and east of Charlotte, where rain falling into a lip of cold air bleeding off the Appalachians could lead to a dangerous riming of ice. Ice storm conditions are possible in portions of interior North and South Carolina, including “nearly impossible” travel and power outages, according to the Weather Service.

Because the low-pressure center is working up the coast, areas to the west will be on the cold side of the system. That means the Acela corridor will escape the harsh throes of wintry weather, but the Appalachians won’t be so lucky.

Moderate to heavy accumulations are possible in the high terrain of the Carolinas, western Virginia, eastern West Virginia, the Panhandle of Maryland, much of Pennsylvania, extreme-eastern Ohio and western New York state. A plowable snow is a safe bet with 5 to 10 inches the general rule. Localized pockets of more than a foot are possible, especially in the elevations of the Appalachians and in western Pennsylvania and New York.

Snow will taper down south to north Sunday night into midday Monday as a “dry slot” works through. In its wake, colder air will build into the region.

Meteorologists are also tracking the potential for another wintry system next weekend in the eastern U.S.

(c) 2022, The Washington Post · Matthew Cappucci 

{Matzav.com}