Biden’s Final Flop: 911,000 Fewer Jobs Than Reported in the Year Through March

The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced Tuesday that job creation in the United States was overstated by nearly one million positions in the year ending March 2025, according to early benchmark revisions. This adjustment, the largest ever recorded, indicates that hiring during that period was happening at about half the pace originally reported.

Officials at the BLS said payroll totals are expected to be revised downward by 911,000 jobs, or 0.6 percent. That means total employment growth over those 12 months will be closer to 850,000, rather than the 1.8 million previously published. On a seasonally adjusted basis, monthly job gains drop from roughly 147,000 to just over 70,000.

The shortfall spans nearly every sector and most states. Wholesale and retail trade saw the largest downward adjustment, followed by leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and manufacturing. In percentage terms, the most dramatic cut was in information services, where employment was revised down by more than 2 percent.

This recalculation changes the view of the economic landscape as President Donald Trump began his second term. Instead of taking charge of a red-hot labor market, Trump entered office with an economy that was already much weaker than thought. What had been hailed as one of the strongest job markets in history now looks far less impressive.

In mid-2024, White House economic adviser Jared Bernstein told the New York Times that “it’s beyond question that this is one of the strongest labor markets that we’ve ever seen.” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell echoed that sentiment in December, saying “the U.S. economy has just been remarkable… performing very, very well.” Both assessments were based on payroll data that has now been substantially revised lower.

At the time, many analysts suggested voters were overlooking strong employment numbers because of high inflation. The new figures imply instead that voters were accurately sensing economic weakness that was hidden by overly optimistic reports.

The revisions also raise questions about the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions in late 2024. The Fed cut interest rates three times between September and December, then paused once Trump took office. With the labor market already weaker than believed, the central bank may have underestimated the slowdown. Now, with unemployment climbing to 4.3 percent in August — the highest in nearly four years — pressure for further rate cuts is building.

This is the second year in a row that the BLS has issued a strikingly large revision. Back in February, the agency reduced its estimate of job growth through March 2024 by almost 600,000. The latest update, which will be finalized in February 2026, suggests that last year’s overstatement was not a one-off mistake but part of a broader trend. Economists caution, however, that the final revisions may not be as steep as the initial estimate, similar to the pattern from last year when the preliminary cut was later softened.

The repeated miscalculations have also put the Bureau of Labor Statistics under sharper scrutiny. President Trump last month removed the agency’s commissioner, Erika McEntarfer, who had been confirmed by the Senate, citing the string of massive revisions. He has nominated economist E.J. Antoni, a vocal critic of the bureau’s methodology, to succeed her.

Although the revision only applies through March 2025, when combined with recent weak reports — such as the 22,000 jobs added in August — it points to a labor market deteriorating more quickly, and from a lower baseline, than most experts previously believed.

{Matzav.com}