The Israeli political system was thrown into heightened uncertainty Monday after Degel HaTorah announced that it no longer has confidence in Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, a move widely viewed as the strongest warning yet from the chareidi parties regarding the future of the coalition government.
Although the party has not yet formally decided to leave the government, its willingness to support dissolving the Knesset has accelerated internal political discussions about the possibility of early elections in the coming months.
Officials within the Likud are currently trying to contain the crisis. Sources familiar with ongoing negotiations said Netanyahu still prefers to keep the government intact through the end of its term, but acknowledged that serious conversations are already taking place regarding possible election scenarios later this year.
According to assessments within the party, the ongoing dispute surrounding the draft law is not expected to disappear and will likely continue shadowing the coalition until a final political breaking point is reached.
Attention has now turned to Shas chairman Aryeh Deri, who is increasingly being viewed as the key figure determining whether the government survives.
As long as Shas does not join Degel HaTorah in backing legislation to dissolve the Knesset, coalition leaders believe the government still has a path to survival.
Likud officials reportedly believe Netanyahu will spend the coming days attempting to prevent Deri from aligning fully with the Litvish leadership, including through renewed commitments related to the draft law.
Several possible election dates are now reportedly being discussed behind the scenes, including early September, mid-September, and late October.
Within Shas, officials reportedly favor elections during the month of Elul, believing voter turnout among chareidi and traditional voters would likely be higher during that period.
By contrast, Likud and Religious Zionism officials are said to be concerned about a campaign colliding with the Tishrei holiday season, which could create logistical and legal complications involving vote counting and election appeals.
Finance Minister Betzalel Smotrich’s political standing is also playing a role in discussions over timing.
Officials in Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party reportedly prefer postponing elections for as long as possible as polls continue placing the party near the electoral threshold.
Coalition officials said that from Smotrich’s perspective, every additional month before elections could carry major political significance.
Alongside the political calculations, officials also believe Netanyahu would prefer heading into elections only after a major military or diplomatic development, should one occur in the coming months.
For that reason, sources close to the prime minister are currently rejecting suggestions that the government’s collapse is imminent, even as tensions between the coalition and the chareidi parties have become more open and public than ever before.
