ELECTION ANALYSIS: These Seven States Hold The Keys To The White House — But Harris and Trump Face Tough Hurdles to Win Them

With polls showing Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump neck and neck as the 2024 presidential race enters its final stretch, the outcome of the election will hinge on seven critical battleground states. These states, collectively worth 93 electoral votes, will likely decide the winner.

These swing states include both traditional Democratic strongholds, part of the “blue wall” that Trump broke through in 2016, and reliably Republican states that President Biden managed to capture in 2020. With fewer mail-in ballots this election due to the absence of pandemic-related restrictions, a result could be reached faster than in 2020, when Biden’s win wasn’t confirmed until four days after the election.

Here’s a closer look at each pivotal state:

PENNSYLVANIA
Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes make it a key prize. Once solidly Democratic, Trump won the state in 2016 by a margin of 44,292 votes, only for Biden to reclaim it in 2020 by a slightly larger margin of around 80,000 votes. An assassination attempt on Trump in this state added unexpected tension to the race.

Due to state law, election officials can only start counting mail-in ballots on Election Day, which may delay results here. Although the polls show a tight race, Republicans are optimistic. “More than 21% of all Republicans who have voted so far did not vote in any of the last three elections. This is a higher percentage than the number of low-propensity Democrats voting,” GOP consultant Ryan Girdusky noted. “But most concerning for Democrats is the big decrease of voters in Philadelphia.”

MICHIGAN
Once a Democratic stronghold, Michigan went to Trump in 2016, then returned to the Democratic fold with Biden in 2020. Harris aims to capture as many votes as possible from Democratic centers like Detroit, while Trump’s backers are focused on boosting turnout in suburban and swing areas like Kent County and Grand Rapids.

Nicholas Valentino, a political scientist from the University of Michigan, commented, “The best information we have at the moment is that Michigan is a dead heat.” He added that Trump could benefit if polling inaccuracies from 2016 and 2020 persist. “If the polls here are biased in the same way as 2016 and 2020, even not quite as much, Trump will win the state.”

WISCONSIN
The third of the “blue wall” states that Trump took in 2016 and Biden reclaimed four years later is once again competitive. Wisconsin Republicans hope to draw in conservative voters with a ballot measure that would bar noncitizens from participating in state elections. Although federal law already prevents noncitizens from voting in national elections, some municipalities have considered allowing them to vote in local races.

Harris’s campaign could also be hindered by several far-left candidates who remain on the ballot in Wisconsin this year, such as Jill Stein, Cornell West, and Claudia De la Cruz of the Party for Socialism and Liberation.

ARIZONA
Arizona, historically a Republican stronghold, was a notable loss for Trump in 2020. This year, Democrats hope to hold on. “I think Arizona is going to squeak out a win for Trump but by less than expected,” said Meghan McCain, daughter of the late Arizona Sen. John McCain, highlighting the influence of independent and libertarian voters.

McCain added that Trump’s margin may be impacted by GOP Senate candidate Kari Lake, predicting Lake could lose by a significant margin of six to eight points. Democrats are hopeful about down-ballot races, particularly with an abortion measure on the ballot aimed at motivating their base. They’re also attempting to capture both chambers of the state legislature, a feat not achieved since 1966.

NORTH CAROLINA
North Carolina, a state Democrats have only won twice since 1968, is seeing renewed efforts by both parties. The state’s ongoing recovery from the devastating Hurricane Helene has created logistical challenges for both campaigns. Nevertheless, Democrats are showing confidence as the polls tighten following Biden’s departure from the race.

Republicans face additional obstacles due to Mark Robinson, a controversial GOP gubernatorial candidate who recently came under fire for alleged inflammatory comments, including calling himself a “Black Nazi” and defending slavery.

NEVADA
The Democratic-leaning state of Nevada has six electoral votes, the smallest of the swing states, but neither side is ignoring it. Both Trump and Harris have campaigned here, and Democrats are counting on a ballot measure to protect abortion rights in the Nevada constitution to energize their voters. Meanwhile, a measure requiring photo ID for voting, expected to boost Republican turnout, is also on the ballot.

As a bellwether state, Nevada has often indicated the direction of presidential races. In 27 of the past 30 elections, the state’s choice has matched the eventual winner of the White House, with only three exceptions: 1908, 1976, and 2016.

GEORGIA
Once a Republican stronghold, Georgia became a battleground in 2020, handing Biden a narrow win and flipping both Senate seats to Democrats. Tensions remain high between Trump and Georgia’s Republican leaders, Governor Brian Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, stemming from Trump’s attempts to overturn the 2020 results. These efforts have led to an ongoing criminal investigation in Fulton County, now delayed following revelations of a personal scandal involving District Attorney Fani Willis and prosecutor Nathan Wade.

Hurricane Helene’s destruction could complicate voter turnout, but Trump’s campaign remains hopeful. Bill White, a senior Trump surrogate with ties to Georgia, stated, “We are always running as if as if we are a point behind which I think is the best strategy, but our analysis of the data from early voting shows that Georgia is resoundingly strong for President Trump.”

{Matzav.com}