Election ‘Nostradamus’ Predicts Kamala Harris Will Win 2024 Presidential Race

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American University professor Dr. Allan Lichtman, who has accurately forecasted nine out of the last ten presidential elections, offered his final prediction on Thursday for the 2024 presidential race. In a video shared by the New York Times, Lichtman predicted that Vice President Kamala Harris would triumph over former President Donald Trump on November 5, thus maintaining Democratic control of the White House.

Lichtman, who has gained notoriety and stirred debate every four years through his “Keys to the White House” method—a system of 13 criteria to evaluate each major party candidate’s chances—asserted that Harris holds the upper hand in eight of these “keys” while Trump is ahead in three. Nonetheless, Lichtman emphasized in the Thursday video, “the outcome is up to you, so get out and vote.”

Lichtman asserts that he has accurately forecasted the outcome of every presidential election since 1984, although this claim involves a bit of interpretative flexibility. For instance, in 2000, he predicted an Al Gore victory. While Gore did win the popular vote, he ultimately lost the Electoral College to George W. Bush. Two decades later, Lichtman correctly anticipated that Trump would defeat Democrat Hillary Clinton, despite Trump losing the popular vote. Critics such as Lars Emerson and Michael Lovito of the Postrider have challenged Lichtman’s reputation, arguing that his streak of accurate predictions either ended in 2000 or 2016, depending on whether one views the “Keys” as forecasting the popular vote or the Electoral College. The 13 “Keys” are:

  • Whether the sitting president’s party gained seats in the House during the midterms (Trump)
  • Whether the incumbent is seeking re-election (Trump)
  • Whether the party in the White House is facing a primary (Harris)
  • Whether there is a third-party candidate (Harris)
  • The condition of the short-term economy (Harris)
  • The condition of the long-term economy (Harris)
  • Whether the sitting president’s party has made changes to national policy (Harris)
  • Whether there is social unrest (Harris)
  • Whether the president faced major scandals (Harris)
  • The appeal of the challenger (Harris)
  • The appeal of the incumbent (Trump)
  • Whether there have been major foreign policy disasters (N/A)
  • Whether the sitting president has had successes in foreign affairs (N/A)

Lichtman, who is 77, suggested, somewhat contentiously, that President Biden had not encountered a major scandal during his tenure because issues surrounding his age and his son Hunter’s controversies did not create significant partisan divides. In the Times video, Lichtman also remarked, “Foreign policy is tricky, and these keys could flip.” He noted, “The Biden administration is deeply invested in the war in Gaza, which is a humanitarian disaster with no end in sight.” However, Lichtman argued that even if both foreign policy “keys” were to become unfavorable, there would still only be five negative “keys,” which would not be sufficient for Trump to reclaim the White House. Lichtman, a registered Democrat, had previously warned his party against removing Biden from the presidential ticket after Biden’s poor performance in the June 27 debate with Trump, citing the strength of incumbency in his “13 keys” and cautioning that it could be a “tragic mistake.”

Currently, Harris has a 2.4 percentage-point lead over Trump in national multi-candidate polls, according to the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate. Nate Silver’s latest forecast gives Trump a 58.2% chance of winning in the Electoral College. Trump and Harris are scheduled to debate in Philadelphia on September 10, with the event hosted by ABC News. Despite the tumultuous nature of the 2024 election cycle, Lichtman remained firm in his prediction, asserting that “the keys absolutely will work — they are the constant northern star of political prediction.”

{Matzav.com}

11 COMMENTS

  1. This guy is another phony liberal Jew, who is infected with TDS. This fool hopes that Harris, who is completely unqualified, weak and clueless on most important issues, will win the election. There are many people who have correctly predicted the presidential elections for longer than this, and even he gives himself an exit ramp, noting that “the keys could change.” So in the final analysis, he’s not ‘predicting’ anything. This is emblematic of the bogus positions that self-styled “professors” occupy in our “prestigious” colleges of ill repute.

    • Why the rage?
      He’s giving his prediction as well as the basis of his prediction. And yes, he’s hedging a bit by saying things can change – so what?

    • He only “predicted” those who were INSTALLED – which is everyone in the last few decades besides Trump. There’s no way a minority party can win the presidency otherwise.

  2. I would argue that half the so called keys that lichtman has handed to Harris are actually more fitting to belong to trump,
    3,4,5,6,8,12, and 13 respectively
    Harris had no primary process, the economy is shambles compared to when Trump was president.
    The last two so-called “keys” have to do with foreign policy disasters, and successes and foreign policy.
    Joe Biden has had more wars started in his term as president than any of the last seven presidents, starting with the Afghanistan withdrawal, the Russia, Ukraine war, which has left close to 1 million dead And most notoriously the war, Israel is waging against Hamas.
    The keys may have significance, however The keys in no way point to a Harris victory.

    • She has ZERO chance of winning. The only ones who will “vote” for her will be those whom the Democrats paid to attend her “rallies” which consisted of less than a dozen.

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