Far Right Set to Win in a German State for the First Time Since WWII

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Projections in Germany’s closely watched elections Sunday showed the anti-migrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) party leading in one state and running a close second in another, a result that, if confirmed by official tallies, would see a far-right party win a state for the first time in the country’s postwar history.

The projections, based on early vote counts and commissioned by public broadcaster ARD, showed the AfD well ahead with 32.8 percent in the state of Thuringia, and claiming 30.8 percent in Saxony – 1 percentage point behind the center-right Christian Democrats. A second forecast by broadcaster ZDF showed an even tighter race in Saxony.

In both states in eastern Germany – which has become a stronghold of the far right – other parties have refused to cooperate with the AfD, meaning it is unlikely to form part of any new state governments. Nevertheless, the victory in Thuringia in particular would be seen as highly symbolic.

Deemed an extremist organization by domestic intelligence in three German states, and under investigation by national authorities for Islamophobia and its radical anti-migrant stances, the AfD has managed to overcome deep-seated taboos over nationalist politics.

“For the first time since World War II, we have a far-right party coming in first place in an election here in Germany,” said Sudha David-Wilp, director of the German Marshall Fund’s Berlin office. “So that is quite significant. The mainstream parties have to realize that the [AfD] is here to stay.”

Projections showed the centrist parties in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s national governing coalition – the center-left Social Democrats, the Green Party and the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP)- struggling with single-digit backing in both states, although none of the three parties has traditionally performed well there. In Thuringia, polls showed the Greens and the FDP were both failing to muster the 5 percent required to enter the state parliament.

Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), a pro-Russian populist party of the far left, also made significant inroads, posting double digits in both states just eight months after the party was founded. That outcome could hint at new challenges for Scholz, whose coalition partners have languished in national polls amid a slew of crises.

Although the ruling parties were expecting a drubbing, David-Wilp said the issues driving sentiment in the two states – frustrations over migration, the war in Ukraine and the high costs of living – were nationwide problems.

The initial exit polls are based on samples at representative polling stations throughout election day; official vote counts and provisional results expected overnight will be a factor in subsequent projections.

The AfD’s projected strong showing on Sunday amounted to the latest in a string of political gains, including a second-place finish in June’s vote for the European Parliament.

“We are the number one people’s party in Thuringia,” Björn Höcke, the AfD’s regional leader in Thuringia and a designated extremist by German’s domestic intelligence agency, told ARD. This year, he was fined twice after being found guilty for using Nazi slogans that are banned in modern Germany, charges he has labeled as political persecution.

“We have achieved a historic result,” he said.

Asked how he planned to build a coalition and become state premier, Höcke said the “dumb firewall talk” had to stop, referring to the other parties’ refusal to work with the AfD.

If it is unable to woo a coalition partner, the AfD will be unable to govern in either state. The party, however, could still gain significant rights in the two regional parliaments. Initial forecasts suggest that the AfD could win more than one-third of seats, granting the party special rights of a “blocking minority,” which would allow it to veto certain decision such as the appointment of judges and amendments to the regional state constitution.

Its victory will be felt far beyond the two eastern states.

Julia Reuschenbach, a political scientist at Berlin’s Free University, said the question people will be asking from outside is, “Is it really possible that in the country of National Socialism, where the Holocaust took place, that a right-wing extremist party or at least a right-wing extremist regional association can win an election again or become the strongest force?”

While the AfD’s political power is limited without governing, the party’s strength in numbers will make the democratic process of coalition building – a standard practice in Germany’s state and federal government, which uses a proportional representation system – no easy feat for the other parties.

The election results also mirrored the trend in the West of a shrinking middle, with polarized voters moving further toward political extremes. The additional success of the far-left BSW, only founded in January, could reshape German politics, with the party having the potential to scoop up voters from across the political spectrum in next year’s national vote.

AfD, founded in 2013 on skepticism of the European Union and euro zone, has grown more radical in recent years – and found new success in the process. The first boost came in 2015, at the height of Europe’s Syrian migrant crisis, which helped the party win its first seats in Germany’s federal lower house of parliament, the Bundestag.

As the AfD grew in popularity, analysts say the party rapidly radicalized. Observers point to the covid-19 pandemic as a turning point, during which parts of the AfD mingled with conspiracy theorists and far-right extremists, both online and at demonstrations against pandemic measures.

The party continues to lead its campaigns with anti-migration policy and moved quickly to capitalize on the fatal stabbing of three people in Solingen on Aug. 23, for which the Islamic State has claimed responsibility. The 26-year-old Syrian suspect arrived in Germany in 2022 and, under the E.U. immigration rules, was supposed to be deported to Bulgaria, the country where he first entered the 27-nation bloc.

Observers fear that the AfD’s success in Sunday’s elections could also empower party supporters in Brandenburg – another eastern AfD stronghold – where voters head to the polls for a state election on Sept. 22. The far-right party there is currently polling in first position with 24 percent.

(c) Washington Post

1 COMMENT

  1. Blah Blah.
    I admit I do not know anything about German politics.
    But I do know what the Media Label’s FAR RIGHT, is probably just Common Sense CENTRIST.

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