Germany’s center-right CDU/CSU alliance appears set to win a decisive victory in Sunday’s parliamentary elections, despite a notable rise in support for the far-right, according to exit polls from the public broadcasters ARD and ZDF. The results pave the way for Friedrich Merz, leader of the conservatives, to potentially succeed Olaf Scholz as Chancellor of Germany, contingent on the outcome of upcoming coalition negotiations.
The CDU, along with its Bavarian affiliate CSU, is projected to secure between 28.5% and 29% of the vote, according to the exit polls that were released shortly after voting closed at 6 p.m. local time (1700 GMT) on Sunday. Meanwhile, the far-right party Alternative for Germany (AfD) experienced a significant surge, projected to win between 19.5% and 20% of the vote, a sharp increase from the 10.4% it gained in the 2021 election.
In contrast, the ruling Social Democrats (SPD), led by Chancellor Scholz, are on track to suffer a significant loss, falling to third place with just 16% to 16.5% of the vote in the exit polls, marking the worst performance by the party in a national election in decades. The Greens, who are part of the current coalition, secured fourth place with 12% to 13.5%, according to the exit data.
Should these exit poll projections be reflected in the final results, it would signal a dramatic shift to the right in German politics and herald the return of the CDU/CSU to power, less than four years after Angela Merkel’s retirement from politics. Merz is expected to seek alliances with parties on the political left, as all mainstream groups, including his own CDU/CSU, have firmly rejected the idea of any coalition with the AfD.
The key post-election question will be what coalition options are available and how long it will take to form Germany’s next government, given that all parties will need to negotiate before any final decisions are made.
This election comes at a critical moment for Germany, which is currently experiencing its longest recession in over 20 years, following two consecutive years of declining GDP. The country is still grappling with the economic fallout from high inflation, exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and many major companies are considering layoffs and cost-cutting measures.
US President Donald Trump’s potential trade tariffs on the EU, his repeated demands for European NATO members to increase defense spending, and his push for a settlement with Russia over Ukraine will all require a decisive response from the next German Chancellor. This early election was triggered after Scholz’s coalition government, comprising the Greens and the Free Democrats (FDP), fractured in November due to internal disputes over economic policy, forcing the election to be brought forward from its originally planned date in September.
The brief election campaign was largely defined by debates surrounding migration, fueled by a series of violent incidents involving migrants. Merz thrust himself into the middle of the controversy by advancing a non-binding resolution with the AfD’s support, calling for stricter immigration controls following a stabbing incident in Bavaria. The move prompted widespread protests, with demonstrators accusing Merz of weakening the political “firewall” that separates the CDU/CSU from the AfD, a party that is under surveillance by domestic intelligence as a suspected far-right extremist group.
The controversy also sparked speculation—denied vehemently by Merz—that he might abandon the firewall entirely and form a coalition with the AfD if coalition talks with other parties become unworkable.
The formation of the next government could also hinge on how many smaller parties manage to secure seats in the Bundestag, which typically requires winning at least 5% of the vote. The Left party, which had faced internal challenges earlier this year, is projected to easily surpass the threshold, securing between 8.5% and 9% in the exit polls. The party had been in turmoil following the departure of one of its founding members, Sahra Wagenknecht, who formed her own party, the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which is forecast to win between 4.7% and 5% of the vote.
The FDP, led by former finance minister Christian Lindner, is currently hovering just above the 5% threshold, with the exit polls showing the party at 4.9% to 5%, a significant drop from the 11.5% it earned in 2021. Under Germany’s proportional representation system, voters cast two votes—one for a candidate in their local constituency and another for a party. The 630 seats in the Bundestag are allocated based on the party vote, after factoring in the results of the local constituencies.
{Matzav.com}
