Harris Takes Surprise Lead in Key Sun Belt States

Vice President Kamala Harris is currently ahead of former President Donald Trump by 5 percentage points in Arizona and has a slight advantage over him in North Carolina. However, Trump leads in Georgia and Nevada, resulting in an overall tie between the two candidates across these four Sun Belt states, as per a recent poll.

The poll, conducted by The New York Times and Siena College, surveyed 2,670 registered voters from August 8 to 15 and was released on Saturday. The results show Harris leading Trump 50% to 45% in Arizona and 49% to 47% in North Carolina. Conversely, Trump holds a 50% to 46% lead in Georgia and a 48% to 47% lead in Nevada, leading to a 48% tie between Harris and Trump across the four states.

This poll reflects a notable improvement for Democrats since the previous Times/Siena poll in May, where Trump led President Joe Biden 50% to 41% in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. That earlier poll did not include North Carolina.

The latest poll follows a Times/Siena poll from last week in the northern battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, which showed Harris leading Trump by 4 percentage points.

Despite these gains, Harris faces some challenges, as 43% of registered voters view her as too liberal, while 33% consider Trump too conservative.

The poll also indicates growing enthusiasm among Democrats with Harris as their nominee, with 85% of voters expressing at least some excitement about voting—a level of enthusiasm almost on par with that for Trump.

Moreover, large majorities on both sides are now satisfied with their candidates, a shift from May when Republican satisfaction was significantly higher.

The current poll underscores the deep polarization of this year’s election. Harris garnered support from 84% of Black voters, surpassing the levels Biden had before exiting the race in July.

Harris also secured 54% of Latino voters and created a significant gender gap with Trump in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, leading by 14 percentage points among women.

Additionally, Harris expanded her lead among nonwhite voters in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada by 29 percentage points, compared to the 17-point lead Biden held among these voters in May.

Trump, on the other hand, maintained a strong lead among white voters without a college degree, with 66% support across the four Sun Belt states.

Both Harris and Trump received a 48% favorable rating. For Harris, this marks a significant improvement from a national survey in February, where she had an unfavorable margin of 19 percentage points.

The poll did highlight some potential weaknesses for Harris, as more voters believe she changes her stance on important issues more than Trump does.

Trump continues to hold an advantage on issues like the economy and immigration, which most voters identify as key concerns facing the country.

On the question of which candidate would best handle the issues most important to voters, Harris and Trump were nearly evenly matched.

When third-party candidates were considered, the polls for the four Sun Belt states remained virtually unchanged. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received 4% of the likely voters, about half of what he garnered in the May poll.

The margins of error for the polls were plus or minus 4.4 points in Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia, and plus or minus 4.2 points in North Carolina.

{Matzav.com}