Mamdani’s Lead Over Cuomo Shrinks After Adams Quits Race, Poll Finds

A new Quinnipiac University poll shows that Zohran Mamdani remains the front-runner in the New York City mayoral race, but Andrew Cuomo has closed the gap significantly since Mayor Eric Adams bowed out of the contest.

According to the survey, Mamdani holds 46% of likely voters, Cuomo stands at 33% running as an independent, and Republican Curtis Sliwa holds steady with 15%.

Last month, Quinnipiac tested a four-way race that included Adams. In that poll, Mamdani had 45%, Cuomo just 23%, Sliwa 15%, and Adams 12%. With Adams no longer a factor, Mamdani’s advantage has shrunk from a 22-point margin to just 13.

The numbers suggest that most of Adams’ supporters shifted directly to Cuomo, who previously served three terms as governor. Sliwa’s backing remained unchanged from the earlier survey.

While Mamdani continues to lead, Quinnipiac analysts noted the dramatic change in Cuomo’s support. “The numbers changed but the contours of the race haven’t. Andrew Cuomo picked up the bulk of Adams’ supporters cutting into Zohran Mamdani’s lead, but Mamdani’s frontrunner status by double digits stays intact,” said Mary Snow, assistant director of the Quinnipiac poll.

Cuomo’s campaign pointed to the results as proof of momentum, even though Mamdani’s support also ticked upward. “Today’s Quinnipiac poll confirms what New Yorkers are seeing across the five boroughs — this race is shifting decisively. Andrew Cuomo is up 10 points since September, while Zohran Mamdani remains stagnant and Curtis Sliwa continues to fade away,” said Cuomo spokesman Rich Azzopardi.

The poll also revealed where each candidate draws their strongest backing. Mamdani dominates among Democrats (60%), Asian American voters (67%), younger voters ages 18–34 (62%), those 35–49 (60%), and people who identify as nonreligious (69%). He also leads among both black and Hispanic voters.

Cuomo’s most reliable base is Jewish voters, where he receives 60% support. Among Republicans, 54% favor Sliwa while 37% go for Cuomo.

When asked about ethics, respondents viewed Mamdani more positively than either Cuomo or Sliwa. But when it comes to experience, more voters agreed Cuomo has the “right kind of experience” to be mayor. His biggest hurdle, however, remains his reputation — including sexual harassment claims he denies but which forced his resignation in 2021. A majority of 52% still view him unfavorably.

Voters were also asked who would best defend New York’s interests in Washington under President Trump. The results were nearly even: 35% named Mamdani, 34% said Cuomo, and 22% picked Sliwa, with the rest undecided. “Much has been said about the issue not on the ballot but looming over the race: President Trump. Both Mamdani and Cuomo make the case they’ll be the best guardrail over New York City’s interests under Trump. But voters don’t see much daylight between them,” Snow observed.

On specific policy issues, Mamdani scores higher on lowering housing costs, with 48% to Cuomo’s 25% and Sliwa’s 13%. Cuomo is rated better on the economy, 41% to 35% for Mamdani, with Sliwa at 15%.

The poll also explored foreign policy views. Asked which candidate aligns most closely with their own stance on the Israel–Hamas conflict, 45% chose Mamdani, 26% Cuomo, and 13% Sliwa. More broadly, 43% of respondents said their sympathies lean more toward the Palestinians, compared to 22% who sided with Israelis. Roughly a third had no opinion.

Importantly, the survey concluded before President Trump announced the first stage of his ceasefire and hostage release plan for Israel and Hamas.

Quinnipiac surveyed 1,015 likely voters across the city between October 3 and October 7. The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

{Matzav.com}