Former President Donald Trump has overtaken President Joe Biden in presidential polling for the first time in history of the NBC News polling, a development NBC host Kristen Welker and poll analyst Steve Kornacki called “stunning.”
Welker pointed out on “Meet the Press” that it’s the first instance in their polling history where Trump outshines Biden, a lead that has persisted since 2019. The numbers show Trump ahead by 2 points, with a 46%-44% margin, mirroring the Republicans’ lead over Democrats on the generic congressional ballot at 47%-45%.
Beyond the mere statistics, Biden’s approval rating has hit an unprecedented low of 40% in the NBC News poll, coupled with Trump taking the lead in a hypothetical 2024 head-to-head race. Independents, in particular, exhibit a significant shift, with 63% disapproving of Biden’s performance compared to the meager 30% who still approve—a stark contrast. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas since October 7 appears to be a pivotal factor, causing an 8-point drop in Biden’s foreign policy approval, plummeting from an already low 41% in September to a mere 33%.
“This poll is a stunner, and it’s stunning because of the impact the Israel-Hamas war is having on Biden,” remarked Public Opinion Strategies Republican pollster Bill McInturff. Notably, among young voters aged 18-34, only 20% view Biden favorably regarding the Israel-Hamas conflict. In this demographic, Trump leads by 4 points at 46%, a notable shift from the 2020 landscape where Biden held a plus-26-point advantage.
A further blow to Biden’s standing comes in the form of likability, where he now lags behind Trump with a negative rating of 53%, according to the poll results. Jeff Horwitt, a Democrat pollster from Hart Research Associates, observed, “Joe Biden is at a uniquely low point in his presidency, and a significant part of this, especially within the Biden coalition, is due to how Americans are viewing his foreign policy actions.”
While the debate over likability and approval rages on, Trump’s dominance within the Republican primary field is unequivocal. The GOP primary results illustrate Trump’s formidable lead with 58%, overshadowing contenders like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (18%), former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (13%), and others who trail far behind.
Hart Research Associates and Public Opinion Strategies conducted the poll, surveying 1,000 registered voters for NBC News between November 10-14, with results carrying a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.