New York City could face an unprecedented exodus if far-left candidate Zohran Mamdani captures the mayoralty on Tuesday, according to a striking new survey that shows hundreds of thousands of residents ready to pack up and leave.
The poll, conducted by J.L. Partners and reported by the Daily Mail, found that approximately 765,000 New Yorkers — about 9% of the city’s 8.4 million residents — said they would “definitely” leave the Big Apple if Mamdani is elected the 111th mayor. Another 25%, or roughly 2.12 million, said they would “consider” relocating.
“If anywhere near that number actually left, the economic impact would be seismic,” said pollster James Johnson. “Older New Yorkers, Staten Islanders, and white voters are the most likely to say they would pack up and go.”
If even a fraction of those pledging to depart follow through, the city could lose a population equal to that of Washington, D.C., Las Vegas, or Seattle — a demographic collapse with potentially devastating consequences for its tax base and economy.
High-income residents appeared especially uneasy. Among those earning more than $250,000 annually, 7% said they would definitely leave, amplifying concerns that New York’s financial backbone could erode under a Mamdani administration.
Men were significantly more inclined to flee than women — 12% compared to 7% — though roughly a quarter of both groups said they were weighing a move. The poll found that New Yorkers between 50 and 64 were the most likely to want out, with 12% committed to leaving and another 33% considering it.
By racial breakdown, 13% of white residents and 11% of Asian New Yorkers said they would definitely leave. Staten Island residents were the most eager to escape, with 21% certain they’d go and another 54% considering it. In Brooklyn, 8% said they’d move and 18% were undecided, while in Manhattan, 6% said they’d leave and 20% were unsure.
Many respondents cited the Carolinas, Florida, and Tennessee as preferred destinations, pointing to lower income and property taxes as key motivators.
Pollster James Johnson warned that confidence in Mamdani, a 34-year-old socialist state assemblyman, remains deeply polarized. “If anywhere near that number actually left, the economic impact would be seismic,” he repeated, stressing that such an outflow would ripple far beyond city limits.
The latest data also shows an unusually high level of voter engagement. As of Sunday night, when early voting wrapped up, 735,317 New Yorkers had already cast ballots. Election officials expect as many as 1.9 million voters to participate — the city’s highest turnout since nearly 2.5 million ballots were cast in 1969, when liberal Republican John Lindsay won reelection.
With just 72 hours left before Election Day, Mamdani held a 6.6-point lead over Andrew Cuomo — his tightest margin since midsummer.
A poll released on Shabbos by AtlasIntel showed Mamdani leading with 40.6%, trailed by Cuomo at 34% and Republican Curtis Sliwa at 24.1%. However, the RealClearPolitics average still gives Mamdani a commanding 14.5-point advantage, keeping him on pace to become the next mayor of New York City.
{Matzav.com}
great for new jersey homeowners. many of them will just walk over the verrezano and settle in the great beautiful garden state mein olam haba in olam hazeh of new jersey. suddenly if you own a home in new jersey, especially if its close to new york, your home value will go up.
Eh….. Crossing the Verrazzano will get you into Staten Island, NOT New Jersey!
sorry when we left egypt it was the biggest exodus
Stupidity and nonsense. No one is going anywhere. The left-wing liberals said the exact same thing when a Trump got into office, and every time a conservative Republican gets into office. Childish immature stupidity. If people move out, they were planning to move out already for other reasons.
Not true. Many moved out during covid. Florida is very enticing with all of its tax breaks. It may take time to relocate, but I do believe it will happen. Not just because of money, more for religious freedom and safety. Besides, a move doesn’t have to be so far, monsey is not within ny city
Nah. 99.9% of people aren’t moving.
Maybe a few rich people who were anyways considering moving.
News for you, monsey prices are comparable or worse than Flatbush prices and the taxes are at least double.
As pointed out, this is hyperbole.
No one is moving out.
They didn’t by de blasio.
They didn’t by Cuomo removing cash bail.
They didn’t by Adams flooding the city with illegals.
In fact, I’m sure that many yidden will find ways to milk his ‘free stuff’.
Satmar is endorsing him.
Everyone is gonna be fine.
You are a na’ar if you believe that everything will just be fine. Yes, it is hyperbole when people just they they will move, because life sometimes doesn’t let you just pick up and (parnasa, parents), but anyone that can, this is the maka b’patish
But it’s still in NY State and that’s not a big endorsement.
Just remember, Trump is NOT a radical. Mamdani is a radical muslim with radical muslim agenda.
this isnt referring to frum yidden. note the poll ”staten islanders” frum yidden have too much family and comunnity based dependency to be able to pick up and move to the carolinas. However for a goy to pick up and go, dosen’t take that much.
If you think Boro park will empty out,keep dreaming. The massive buildings of shuls all over the place with their rebbes is not going anywhere. Yes many move to Staten island as its closest to Boro park and yeshivas all have busses from there. The Frum population is exploding and many young chassidim stand to become billionaires. Once big buildings in manhattan start to fall in price it will give Frum yidden a chance to buy it for a song and a dance. Buildings that were worth thirty million will go for five million. Manhattan will still be manhattan despite if Mondami wins. Yes crime will rise but every Frum area has shomrim or shmira. Crime usually comes from neighbors. Yes in areas that are black or Hispanic crime will rise as police refuse to get involved. This looney mondami will hire psychologist to speak to bank robbers as he believes police are not needed. He probably will have a big van with a couch and psychologist protecting him. Anyone who is upset at him will get to speak to his therapist who will offer him a free bag of potato chips from the free groceries to calm down. Then they can choose to go home on a free bus. Trains will become the new mobile homeless shelters. Maybe all this is happening because New York turned into Sodom. You know the Midrash states the world was destroyed because of marriage contracts between men and men and men and animals 4100 years ago in Noah’s flood. Lets daven and vote and keep on increasing our avodas H.
Could you imagine “Cuomo” is the lesser of the 3 evils”???
In a Truth Social post, Trump also threatened that he would limit federal funds for New York City to a minimum if New Yorkers vote for Mamdani, whom he labelled a communist. Mamdani is a democratic socialist.
“If Communist Candidate Zohran Mamdani wins the Election for Mayor of New York City, it is highly unlikely that I will be contributing Federal Funds, other than the very minimum as required, to my beloved first home, because of the fact that, as a Communist, this once great City has ZERO chance of success, or even survival,” he wrote.
“It can only get worse with a Communist at the helm, and I don’t want to send, as President, good money after bad. It is my obligation to run the Nation, and it is my strong conviction that New York City will be a Complete and Total Economic and Social Disaster should Mamdani win. His principles have been tested for over a thousand years, and never once have they been successful.”
That’s why American frum communities often find themselves living in a high-crime neighborhood. The neighborhood was perfectly clean and crime-free when the Jews first moved in. But as the character changed, Jews found it impossible to transplant an entire community.
Our shuls, neighborhood, schools, stores, businesses, employment, and kehillah are very important to us, which makes it understandably hard to leave.
Yes, some do leave, moving to Miami or Eretz Yisrael, or Lakewood, or wherever. But it’s hard for most people to do that.