Despite Iran’s rapidly growing stockpile of enriched uranium, which intelligence experts say cannot plausibly be used for civilian purposes, American intelligence agencies continue to diverge from Israel’s more urgent assessment that Tehran is actively working toward building a nuclear weapon, according to a report published Thursday.
As detailed by The New York Times, the Mossad estimates that Iran could put together a nuclear weapon in just 15 days. U.S. intelligence, however, maintains a more cautious timeline, suggesting that Iran would require several months to a year to build a bomb—and that, as of now, it has not taken definitive steps to begin that process.
Quoting U.S. intelligence sources and government officials, the report explained that the American position has not shifted since the matter was last formally reviewed in March. This comes despite the fact that Israel has initiated a widespread bombing campaign aimed at crippling Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, missile capabilities, research facilities, and military networks.
The report notes that top American intelligence officials warn Iran could make the strategic decision to pursue nuclear weaponization if its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, were assassinated by Israel.
Israeli Defense Minister Yisroel Katz has not dismissed that possibility. Speaking at the site of an Iranian missile impact, Katz said Thursday that Khamenei “cannot continue to exist,” signaling that a targeted assassination remains on the table.
Another scenario that could prompt Iran to rush toward nuclear armament, according to the report, would be a direct U.S. military strike on the uranium enrichment plant at Fordo.
Fordo is located north of Qom and is heavily fortified beneath a mountain, making it virtually impervious to most conventional weapons. Military analysts believe that only U.S.-owned bunker-buster bombs could penetrate the site. Yet Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed in an interview Thursday that Israel has the capability to take out Fordo without American help.
Meanwhile, the White House announced Thursday that President Donald Trump would determine within two weeks whether the U.S. will actively participate in Israel’s military campaign against Iran.
This development followed a high-level intelligence briefing during which CIA Director John Ratcliffe informed the administration that Iran was dangerously close to building a nuclear bomb. His statements were reported to align closely with the Mossad’s current assessment.
While Vice President JD Vance and other senior officials indicated that new intelligence has emerged since March, sources clarified that Vance was actually referencing updated interpretations of already existing data—not newly discovered evidence.
On June 13, Israel launched a large-scale aerial offensive on Iranian territory, aiming to dismantle its nuclear and missile infrastructure. Israeli officials have described the threat from Iran as both immediate and existential. In retaliation, Iran has launched deadly salvos of ballistic missiles at Israeli military installations and civilian areas.
Although Iran continues to assert that it has no intention of producing nuclear arms, its enrichment levels now far exceed what is necessary for any civilian nuclear program. Additionally, the International Atomic Energy Agency has stated that Iran has blocked access to inspectors trying to monitor its nuclear activities.
{Matzav.com}
