Iran’s long-standing alliance with its so-called “Axis of Resistance” appears to be unraveling, as the Islamic Republic faces growing isolation in the region. Analysts say Iran is increasingly being left to fend for itself as its regional partners retreat in the face of mounting military and political pressure, the NY Post.
For years, Tehran has poured resources into arming and organizing militias across Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and Syria. But now, most of these groups are in disarray — battered by losses, weakened operationally, and unwilling to escalate further on Iran’s behalf.
Rather than aiding Iran, the proxies once considered devoted allies — including Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and various Shiite factions — are now preoccupied with their own survival and regional positioning.
In some cases, those factions have grown disillusioned with Iran’s ability to shield them from the fallout of the broader conflict.
“For all of these networks right now, it’s about survival. They all understand the wrath of these types of military campaigns,” Renad Mansour, a senior fellow and director of the Iraq Initiative at Chatham House, told the Wall Street Journal.
“Many of them question if this is the time for resistance or whether it’s the time to keep your head down and try to stay out of this conflict,” he added.
Israel’s ongoing military operation in Gaza has, by its own count, eliminated roughly 20,000 Hamas fighters and dismantled most of the terror group’s military capabilities. Since then, Hamas has fired only sporadic rockets in retaliation, even after Israel clashed directly with Iran.
Hezbollah, once viewed as Iran’s crown jewel of proxy power, has also been seriously weakened. A campaign by the Israeli military in Lebanon last year reportedly took out much of the group’s leadership, including its founder Hassan Nasrallah.
The surprise Israeli “pager” operation in September resulted in dozens of Hezbollah fighters killed and thousands more injured. That strike, Arab officials say, left the group in disarray, prompting a shift from confrontation to rebuilding.
Some Hezbollah insiders are said to harbor resentment over Iran’s failure to shield them from that deadly strike. According to Arab diplomats, internal voices have even partially blamed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps for intelligence shortcomings that led to the losses.
In the immediate aftermath of the Gaza war, Hezbollah had been launching near-daily rocket fire at Israeli targets. But since Iran was attacked last week, not a single projectile has been fired — a stark change from past behavior.
Lebanon’s leadership has also played a role in holding the group back. Both President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam publicly declared on Monday that Lebanon would not be drawn into a new war, and other officials have worked to enforce the cease-fire with Israel.
Another major setback for Tehran came when longtime ally Bashar al-Assad was deposed in Syria during a rapid popular uprising late last year.
Assad’s fall was a major loss for Iran’s strategic foothold in the region. Making matters worse for Tehran, reports surfaced that it did not mobilize its affiliated militias to defend Assad — instead directing them to withdraw.
In Iraq, Iran-aligned Shiite groups that once regularly targeted American forces have gone quiet. They have avoided confrontation even as regional tensions escalate.
According to Arab sources familiar with internal discussions, these militias are wary of engaging in conflict, as many of their senior members now hold government positions and are enjoying economic gains from Iraq’s petroleum-based prosperity.
“They’ve been sort of benefiting from Iraq’s stability, in a way, and the high oil prices to develop economic empires,” said Mansour of the dozens of Iran-backed groups.
To date, only Kataeb Hezbollah has publicly commented on the conflict — and even then, the group made clear that it would only respond if American forces entered the battle directly.
In Yemen, the Iran-backed Houthis have taken a more vocal stance, issuing threats to target Israeli and U.S. vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden in response to strikes on Tehran.
The Houthis have launched missiles at Israel since the outbreak of hostilities, claiming that their attacks are being coordinated closely with Iran as part of a joint effort.
But according to analysts, these declarations may be more about optics than actual alignment.
“It’s a Houthi-first policy,” Elisabeth Kendall, a Middle East expert and head of the University of Cambridge’s Girton College, told the WSJ.
“They’re not going to put their own necks on the line for the supreme leader. They’re going to figure out what’s actually best for them,” she added.
Over the past year, the Houthis have suffered heavy damage from repeated U.S. and British air raids targeting their military infrastructure.
American airstrikes in March and April — which were later linked to the so-called SignalGate scandal — reportedly crippled the Houthis’ ability to launch missiles and drones, according to U.S. officials.
{Matzav.com}
