Report: Iran’s Miscalculation Enabled Israel To Eliminate Top Officials

According to a report in The New York Times, Iran had advance knowledge that Israel might target its nuclear program, but Iranian leadership was caught off guard by the timing. Tehran did not anticipate that Israel would strike while talks with the United States were still underway, which contributed to the overwhelming success of the Israeli operation early Friday morning.

Sources close to Iran’s top leadership told the Times that the regime had expected that any military action would be postponed until after the upcoming sixth round of nuclear negotiations with the U.S., which had been scheduled for Sunday, June 15, in Oman. In light of the Israeli strikes, the future of those talks is now uncertain, with Iran signaling that they are likely to be canceled.

The Times reported that Iranian officials believed the threats from Israel were nothing more than psychological tactics designed to pressure Tehran at the negotiating table. They dismissed warnings of an imminent strike as political theater, never expecting a full-scale attack.

This miscalculation reportedly led to a failure to activate contingency plans. Senior military officials remained in their personal residences on Thursday night instead of seeking shelter in fortified locations, making them vulnerable. As a result, key commanders, including Revolutionary Guards chief Hossein Salami and Armed Forces head Mohammad Hossein Bagheri, were killed.

In the confusion that followed the initial strikes, Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, head of the IRGC Aerospace Forces, called an emergency war council with his senior staff. They too were eliminated when Israeli forces struck their meeting site.

The Times report included leaked messages exchanged between top Iranian officials in which they vented their disbelief and outrage: “Where is our air defense?” and “How can Israel come and attack anything it wants, kill our top commanders, and we are incapable of stopping it?”

The officials also privately expressed concern about the intelligence and defense breakdowns that left the country exposed to such a devastating assault. “Israel’s attack completely caught the leadership by surprise, especially the killing of the top military figures and nuclear scientists,” said Hamid Hosseini, a member of Iran’s Chamber of Commerce’s energy committee, in a phone call with the Times from within Iran. “It also exposed our lack of proper air defense and their ability to bombard our critical sites and military bases with no resistance.”

Hosseini further remarked that many within the government were stunned by Israel’s apparent ability to penetrate Iran’s military and intelligence networks.

The Times also reported on internal discussions following the Israeli offensive, led by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Two officials familiar with those talks said that while Khamenei was determined to retaliate, he was hesitant to rush into action.

There was significant internal debate over how Iran should respond and whether it could endure an extended conflict with Israel, especially if the United States became involved. The heavy damage to Iran’s missile arsenal and air defense systems weighed heavily in the deliberations.

One participant in the meeting reportedly warned that any Israeli strike targeting Iran’s critical infrastructure—such as its energy grid or water systems—could spark unrest or riots among the population.

A member of the IRGC who had knowledge of the meeting told the Times that Khamenei was facing a crossroads: he could escalate the conflict and risk provoking a war that might endanger the survival of his regime, or pull back and appear weak both at home and abroad.

“Khamenei faces no good options,” said Ali Vaez, the Iran project director of the International Crisis Group. “If he escalates, he risks inviting a more devastating Israeli attack that the US could join. If he doesn’t, he risks hollowing out his regime or losing power.”