Second Coronavirus Wave Will Engulf U.S. in September, IHME Model Forecasts


A second wave of the novel coronavirus could rip through the United States around September, according to a new scientific model from the University of Washington’s Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).

The researchers foresee the national death toll from COVID-19 reaching 170,000 by Oct. 1, the Seattle Times reports. That would mean around 57,000 more deaths in the coming months, on top of the 113,000 Americans already confirmed to have been killed by the virus so far.

IHME Director Christopher Murray told the paper that the projected deaths aren’t inevitable, adding: “We hope to see our model proven wrong by the swift actions individuals and governments take to reduce transmission.” Meanwhile, in Texas, Houston-area officials are reportedly “getting close” to reimposing stay-at-home orders after the state recorded its highest one-day tally of new cases since the pandemic began. According to Bloomberg News, Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo warned: “We may be approaching the precipice of a disaster… It’s out of hand right now.” Read more it at The Seattle Times.



    • This is not a manmade epidemic, although the incompetent response by the Trump Administration made it far worse than it had to be. And the death estimates you read are certainly underestimates — if you simply look at the excess number of deaths this year compared to last year you clearly see that we are undercounting COVID-19 deaths.

  1. 170,000 deaths by October 1 is a very conservative estimate. There are currently over 115,000 fatalities and approximately 1000 additional deaths occurring per day, and caseloads are on an uptick. October 1 is 120 days away, so there would need to be less than 500 deaths per day to have “only” 170,000 fatalities by that date. Assuming cases go up instead of down, 220,000-250,000 would seem a more realistic number. Unless there is compliance with the public health agenda and people stop yelling about how this is a giant hoax (you would think that after 115,000 US deaths people would have dropped that already, but once again, one’s hopes for a semblance of human intelligence are sorely disappointed), this is not slowing down anytime soon. Mr. Trump seems to have infected the nation with his unique brand of narcissism and delusion (to be honest, I’m not sure if he is a cause of the national insanity or a symptom of it). Human life should not be a Democrat vs Republican issue. Some things should be universal and bipartisan. Sadly, our own community does not seem to be that much better than the general public at keeping our heads and not being self centered animals.


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