President Trump’s declaration on Tuesday that Russia is a “paper tiger” is rooted in newly gathered U.S. intelligence indicating that the Kremlin is facing deep economic collapse and significant setbacks on the battlefield as a direct consequence of its invasion of Ukraine.
At the same time, Trump’s assertion that Ukraine is capable of regaining all of its occupied land is being described by officials as his latest “strategic move” aimed at forcing Moscow toward negotiations, according to sources both within and outside the White House who spoke with The Post on Wednesday.
For months, the administration has encouraged dialogue, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has publicly expressed readiness for talks. Yet Russian President Vladimir Putin has dismissed every proposal, continuing to press forward with strikes on civilian targets despite outreach from both Washington and Kyiv.
In a lengthy Truth Social post after meeting Zelensky at the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, Trump wrote that once the Russian people “find out what is really going on with this war” economically, “Ukraine would be able to take back their Country in its original form and, who knows, maybe even go further than that!”
When asked Wednesday whether Trump’s message was intended as “a strategic move aimed at stirring up negotiations,” a White House official confirmed: “Yes, that is correct.”
“It doesn’t signal any substantive policy change,” added a source close to the administration. “It’s a clear and obvious negotiating tactic to push Russia.”
Officials emphasized that the president’s remarks were also informed by updated intelligence about Russia’s growing economic and military problems, according to one source briefed on internal discussions.
“The president of United States is a person who will listen, but he needs to check, to compare, to speak with many people, and for me, this is absolutely normal,” said Andriy Yermak, Zelensky’s top adviser, in an interview Tuesday. “It’s our job as [the] team of our leaders, to speak, to consult, to repeat, to give the evidence, to exchange the information.”
Both Yermak and Zelensky stated on Tuesday that Trump is coming to see that Putin’s boasts of dominance on the battlefield are nothing more than “fairy tales.”
Research from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) shows that Russia has paid an enormous price for minimal territorial gain in recent months. Between May and August, Moscow’s troops advanced 1,910.39 square kilometers (737.6 square miles) but suffered 130,160 killed and wounded — what ISW labeled an “extremely heavy casualty rate.”
“I think he knows more details than before, and I’m happy with this and I’m thankful for him and also maybe for the people who briefed him,” Zelensky said of Trump during a Tuesday press conference.
On the economic front, Russia is struggling with shrinking energy revenues and depletion of liquid reserves from its National Welfare Fund.
According to the International Energy Agency, Russian oil export earnings dropped from $14.4 billion in July to $13.5 billion in August. In the first eight months of 2025, total oil export revenue fell to $110.6 billion, down 16% compared with the same period in 2024.
The Russian Finance Ministry responded Wednesday by recommending an increase in value-added tax from 20% to 22% and revising growth expectations for 2025 to just 1%, a steep decline from 4.3% the previous year.
Meanwhile, Ukrainians have managed to inflict further strain through long-range drone attacks on Russian refineries, leading to fuel shortages across the country. Mark Montgomery, a retired Navy rear admiral and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, explained that “as his [Putin’s] economy becomes pressurized, he has to pick between paying for the war machine or paying for — or maybe payments to — the people who have given him a solid majority in his country.”
“The president is making it very clear that Russia is in a very weak position,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Tuesday night in an interview with Fox News’ Jessie Watters.
“And he’s absolutely right. They are a massive country with a massive military. They are a war economy. But it’s been three-and-a-half years and look at how Ukraine has been able to defend itself,” she continued.
“If the Russians refuse to negotiate in good faith, I think it’s going to be very, very bad for their country,” Vice President JD Vance echoed on Wednesday.
“That’s what the President made clear. It’s not a shift in position. It’s an acknowledgement of the reality on the ground.”
{Matzav.com}
