As discussions intensify about a potential U.S. withdrawal from Syria, the administration of President Donald Trump—or his successor—may be confronted with a pivotal decision that could have far-reaching consequences for the region’s future. Since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December, Syria has evolved into a new battleground for international and regional power struggles, while the transitional government led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, seeks to assert control over the fractured nation.
For years, U.S. forces in Syria have served as a critical pillar for the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in their fight against ISIS. The recent increase in U.S. troop numbers from 900 to 2,000 suggests Washington is keen to stabilize the transition phase. However, there are indications that a reduction of U.S. military presence is also being considered.
The question remains: Can the U.S. withdraw without creating a vacuum for its adversaries to exploit? The answer is far from straightforward. Senator Chris Van Hollen warns that a withdrawal would be a “grave mistake,” pointing to the continued threat of ISIS and the ongoing risk of its resurgence.
Turkey’s interests cannot be overlooked either. Ankara has often diverged from U.S. policy, and in recent months, Turkish policy has grown more hostile toward Israel. Meanwhile, a weakened Iran, expelled from Syria following Assad’s collapse, may find new opportunities to reassert its influence in the region following a U.S. withdrawal.
One of the most concerning scenarios is that a U.S. pullout could grant Russia a golden opportunity to reshape the Syrian landscape to its advantage. Syrian Defense Minister Marhaf Abu Qasra recently stated that Damascus is open to allowing Russia to maintain military bases in the country if it aligns with Syria’s interests.
Syria’s complex internal struggles may also escalate following any U.S. exit. The tension between Kurdish forces and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which controls Damascus, could spiral into open conflict, especially with Turkey’s backing of HTS and its efforts to undermine Kurdish influence along its border.
The Kurds, who were key U.S. allies in the fight against ISIS, could find themselves abandoned in a manner similar to the fallout in Afghanistan, where the U.S. withdrawal enabled the Taliban to swiftly reclaim power.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which has sought to present itself as a “transitional government,” continues to downplay its radical Islamist past in hopes of gaining international legitimacy. However, questions remain about whether Syria could devolve into a Middle Eastern version of Afghanistan, with a strict religious regime masquerading under political slogans to gain global acceptance.
The U.S. administration remains cautious, wary of Syria becoming a new breeding ground for terrorism while also avoiding deeper military involvement. If Washington proceeds with withdrawal, it must ensure that both the al-Sharaa government and HTS can maintain internal stability, curb the return of ISIS, and protect Kurdish rights—tasks that currently seem out of reach.
