Christophe Barraud, known for his highly accurate economic predictions, forecasts that Donald Trump will likely secure the presidency and that Republicans are positioned to gain full control of Congress on November 5.
Barraud, the chief economist and strategist at Market Securities Monaco, notes that while a Trump victory could provide a short-term economic boost, it may create more complex challenges in the future, particularly given the growing national deficit.
“Looking at different metrics such as betting markets, polls, election modelers’ forecasts, financial markets, as of now, the most probable outcomes are: [1] #Trump victory [2] #GOP clean sweep,” Barraud stated on X.
Having earned Bloomberg’s recognition as the top forecaster for the U.S. economy in 11 of the past 12 years, the 38-year-old French economist has become widely recognized as the “world’s most accurate economist.”
Barraud sees strong indicators suggesting a Trump win, along with Republican control of the Senate. Although GOP control of the House may be somewhat challenging, he currently expects them to achieve it.
However, Barraud notes that if Kamala Harris were to win the presidency, the current split control of Congress would likely remain in place, as he mentioned in an interview with Business Insider.
In a scenario where Trump wins but Congress remains divided, he would face obstacles implementing his economic agenda, potentially shifting his focus to tariffs—a strategy that could slow the U.S. economy in the long run and hinder global growth, Barraud explained.
In what Barraud sees as the most probable scenario, with Republicans securing both the White House and Congress, he projects a GDP increase between 2.1% and 2.3% in 2025.
Barraud adds that the economy would probably continue to grow in the short term, no matter who is in office.
Nonetheless, Barraud warns that a significant risk with Trump would be potential tax cuts that lack funding, potentially driving the deficit higher.
Under Trump, he anticipates the 10-year Treasury Bond yield would initially rise to 4.5%, up from its current 4.29%, and then gradually increase to around 5%.
Overall, Barraud predicts that a Trump-led administration would see U.S. GDP growth surpassing most forecasts, which currently estimate growth of 2.6% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025.
Current polling generally shows the presidential race as highly competitive, though Trump is currently ahead in the RealClearPolitics aggregate of national and battleground state polls.
Meanwhile, election historian Dr. Allan Lichtman, known for accurately predicting nine of the last ten presidential elections, is leaning toward a Harris victory.
Prominent polling analyst Nate Silver, however, has indicated he feels that Trump will likely win, with the election just days away.
{Matzav.com}
Wow. Mazel Tov. So it’s a done deal. No need to vote. You should of posted this earlier today. I voted this afternoon on Quentin Road and East 10th.
What a silly comment. He’s not saying that its a done deal. He’s predicting how we (the voters) will vote. But if we don’t vote, then his prediction is out the window, and he would be the first to admit it.
Well, if Trump won the previous elections, you don’t have to be a rocket scientist to “predict” Trump’s 3rd winning. THERE IS NO WAY IN THE WORLD THAT A MINORITY – ESPECIALLY SUCH A HUGE MINORITY – CAN WIN ANY ELECTIONS WITHOUT CHEATING!