Veteran military correspondent Yoav Zitun of Ynet, in what appears to reflect the thinking of top IDF officials, posted a message on X laying out the current reality of Israel’s confrontation with Iran and the strategic considerations that must guide its next steps. Zitun made clear: “Last night, after deliberation, it was permitted to publish – Israel does not have the capability to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities.”
According to Zitun, Israel’s political leadership launched the current campaign with realistic expectations, but the public must understand the broader vision: “The political echelon knew this and set out with a reasonable conception, but one that the public must be aware of: a ‘package’ that includes striking nuclear facilities, dismantling Iranian air defenses in a way that allows Israeli fighter jets to circle over Tehran as if they were over Jabaliya, reducing the ballistic missile threat, eliminating Iran’s security leadership and a credible threat to also behead the regime leaders and ayatollahs alongside possible strikes on national infrastructure like oil reserves – might be sufficient.”
The goal of this extensive military pressure, according to Zitun, is not total victory but to create leverage. “Sufficient for what? To return Iran to negotiations from a position of weakness that will force it to sign an agreement without expiration dates and with teeth – and if not, then at least to delay the nuclear project by several years.”
Achieving complete destruction of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, Zitun noted, is only feasible under two difficult conditions. “Destroying Iran’s nuclear program is indeed militarily possible, under two conditions: American participation in the attack with the massive bunker-buster bombs that only the US has and only it can use, which obviously depends on Trump’s decision – or a long ‘peeling’ operation by air force aircraft of the nuclear facilities’ defenses.”
The second option would mean entering a drawn-out battle with Iran, something Israeli defense officials are already preparing for. “The second option could lead to a scenario that the IDF leadership began discussing and preparing for yesterday: a long war of attrition with Iran, lasting months, perhaps beyond that; dripping missiles and drones, intermittent siege on Ben Gurion Airport, disruption (between interference and paralysis) of the economy and education system, and more.”
Zitun emphasized that despite the IDF’s strong performance in the initial strike, strategic planning must include a clear political goal. “Therefore, alongside the euphoria from the powerful opening blow and the justification for the move that senior IDF officials share – a closure mechanism must be demanded, the political deed or at least demand striving toward it. Iran has always excelled in multi-generational patience – lowering the flames and years of attrition with time-stretching are a victory for it.”
He added that Iran’s full arsenal has not yet been brought to bear, with even deadlier weaponry still on the table. “Iran has many hundreds more missiles of the type that created destruction sites here in recent days with warheads of 200–500 kg explosives, but according to various sources, including experts in the field – Iran has not yet used the Khamenei which carries between one to two tons of explosive material in its warhead and with 20% more blast effect than the missiles fired so far; Iran’s cruise missiles, which are difficult to detect in good time, have also not yet been launched 8.”
Even with a high-functioning air force and strong intelligence services, there are still hard limitations. “This multi-stage move, successful as it may be, also has force limitations, even for the large and strong air force and for military intelligence and the Mossad. In the end, the number of aircraft is an existing given against 5000–10000 relevant targets spread across Iran. And the prices will be several times heavier than war with Hamas. Therefore, the political ending is a necessity that there is no choice but to demand and expect, before the next casualties, and within the foreseeable future.”
Zitun ended with a blunt reflection on the strategic dilemma: “Why Iran would agree to any deal if it has so many cards to play and is at such a strategic advantage will remain forever a great mystery.”
Haman had also the best of cards…
Why in heaven’s name would a person say all this stuff? Is he aiding the enemy? Or is he aiding Israel in getting the enemy to fall into a lull again? Considering they are a bunch of leftists, I’m thinking he’s aiding the enemy. I don’t understand these people. These are the type of people who would have been happy in Uganda. Why they have to deal with the area currently known as Israel, I have no idea.
What a reckless article to post now! And from Ynet? Real people live here and giving a feeling of hopelessness is surely against daas torah. Israel’s options are 1) fight with everything they have or 2) lay down and wait to die. Are you suggesting they do the latter?
That’s an opinion.
I don’t agree with it, but it’s an opinion.
This is not a war of a government affecting the price of oil.
It is not a war over trying to return borders to what they were a specific time in a bygone era. This is a war for the survival of our nation, and we cannot flee like frightened rabbits the moment we face some level of adversity.
We must see this war through and not nearly diminish the enemies nuclear ambitions by days or weeks, but destroy it entirely.
We’re not dealing with spurious claims of WMD‘s or faulty intel. Even the entities most hostile to the actions being taken currently (the Iranian regime and the IAEA) admit that the Iranians were on the cusp of achieving nuclear bomb.
This is war and there will be losses. We are dealing with an enemy that chooses to target civilians instead of military infrastructure each and every civilian life lost is a tragedy, but the alternative is so much worse than stopping now is not an option.
Last night for the first time the IAF. A launch of Iranian ballistic missiles by hitting the launchers as they were being set up. Yes, the next launch was devastating, but that only means that we must double our effort to identify and demolish the launch sites in advance.
Stopping now would be foolhardy. We finally have air superiority over Tehran. We’re working towards dominance.
There are only two ways to fully demolish the underground sites, such as Fordow: either repeatedly hit them with the bunker bust munitions that we do have so we can dig our way in (this will take several days of repeated hits to achieve any any sort of real results) or the Americans launch MOP‘s from the B2 or B1B.
Neither of those have occurred yet, therefore we must continue.
And finally, if we stop now allowing Iran to rebuild and replenish, the lives lost this far will have been in vain. So, to honor the lives of those lost so far, we must defeat the Iranians in this campaign.
Who is this guy?
Why is his opinion worth posting here?
Why would it ever be permitted to publish that Israel does not have the capabilities? Seems like a stupid thing to allow a correspondent to say publicly.
Bring on the Leftists!