Despite increasingly serious talk of Degel HaTorah breaking away from Agudas Yisroel ahead of the upcoming Knesset elections, the two factions are still expected to ultimately run together under the United Torah Judaism banner — but Degel is preparing to demand a dramatically different arrangement that could significantly strengthen its position on the joint slate.
While the Chassidishe side has largely projected an atmosphere of business as usual, intensive discussions have been taking place within Degel HaTorah over the possibility of ending the longstanding electoral partnership. Senior Degel officials are simultaneously developing a strategy that could give the Litvishe faction considerably greater leverage even if, as many expect, the two sides ultimately remain together.
In recent weeks, Degel representatives have reportedly held numerous meetings regarding a possible independent run. Unlike previous election cycles, when talk of splitting from Agudas Yisroel surfaced before eventually disappearing, senior Degel officials are said to be seriously exploring the possibility this time, in consultation with the homes of the Gedolei Yisroel.
Over the past week, Degel representatives have also reportedly met with research institutes and expert sociologists as they attempt to assess the faction’s true electoral strength and the feasibility of running separately.
A senior Degel HaTorah official explained that the party’s frustration with Agudas Yisroel has been building for years.
“True, every election cycle we want to free ourselves from the heavy burden of Agudas Yisroel, but each time we give in at the last moment, because we are responsible and do not want to create a situation in which Agudas Yisroel would not cross the electoral threshold on its own, which is indeed what would happen if it ran alone, and at this point it is also not showing signs of or negotiating other alliances,” the official said.
But he said events during the most recent Knesset term have significantly worsened relations between the two factions.
“But,” the official continued, “in the last term, all the lines were crossed from our perspective. Parts of Agudas Yisroel, who are in the Knesset thanks to Degel HaTorah voters, behaved like they were the bosses and caused tremendous damage and destruction from our perspective, and therefore the current situation cannot continue.”
Despite those grievances, the official acknowledged that Degel and Agudas Yisroel will probably end up running together again.
“This time as well,” he said, “we will apparently ultimately run together. It’s just that the current talk about running separately is genuine and is intended to position us higher in the negotiations.”
He then outlined the strategy Degel is considering.
“We are telling Agudas Yisroel: This time we are running separately, and we are placing the four members of Knesset who currently represent us in the first four slots. If any party within Agudas Yisroel wants to run together with us, it is more than welcome, but every party will be placed from the fifth slot onward, so that it can prove what it is really worth.”
Such an arrangement would constitute a major departure from the traditional power-sharing formula between Degel HaTorah and Agudas Yisroel. Rather than automatically alternating or dividing the most desirable positions between the Litvishe and Chassidishe factions, Degel would effectively claim the first four slots and force individual Chassidishe factions to demonstrate their electoral strength.
According to the Degel official, the proposal is intended to settle a longstanding dispute over the relative voting strength of the Litvishe and Chassidishe communities.
“For the first time, we will be able to examine the strength of the Chassidic communities,” he said. “After all, we know, and it is proven every election cycle, that many Chassidim do not vote at all. Some because they have no interest, some even vote for other parties, and so on. Only among the Litvishe community is there nearly complete discipline and obedience to the Gedolei Yisroel. Therefore, this time our approach is to put the burden of proof on them. If they do not want to do it, it will be impossible to say that we did not want to run together or that, Heaven forbid, we caused the Chareidi community to lose votes.”
The proposed maneuver suggests that Degel HaTorah is determined not to enter another joint campaign under the same terms as in previous elections. Even if an eventual compromise is reached, Degel is expected to insist that its four incumbent Knesset members receive the top four positions on the slate.
That demand could have significant consequences for the internal balance of power within United Torah Judaism and for the placement of Agudas Yisroel’s representatives.
Not everyone within Degel HaTorah, however, is enthusiastic about the strategy.
One Degel Knesset member dismissed the entire discussion as counterproductive.
“It’s all hot air. In the end they will run together. We are simply embarrassing ourselves all over again every election cycle. I think it would be better if they stopped dealing entirely with the issue of Litvishe strength and started dealing with the elections themselves,” he said.
The Knesset member went even further, arguing that there is no realistic prospect of Degel actually contesting the election independently.
“It’s all fantasies. There is no real feasibility for a separate run, so I truly don’t understand what all the talk and leaks are for. It’s simply embarrassing and makes us look pathetic. If you want to separate — you separate. As long as they keep talking, it means nothing will happen, because there is nothing.”
That position is reportedly a minority view within Degel, where senior officials continue to take the possibility of a split seriously.
At the same time, however, there are now signs that formal negotiations toward another joint run are beginning.
Degel HaTorah chairman Moshe Gafni has reportedly instructed party officials to open negotiations with Agudas Yisroel. Until now, despite all the public discussion surrounding the future of United Torah Judaism, the two sides had reportedly not held a formal meeting on the matter.
Moshe Shiffman, Degel HaTorah’s financial official, has been tasked with conducting the negotiations and is expected to meet soon with representatives of the Chassidishe factions.
The situation inside Agudas Yisroel is hardly tranquil either.
Tensions have been simmering between Shlomei Emunim and Belz on one side and Ger on the other, including disputes over financial matters dating back several years as well as disagreements over economic issues ahead of the coming election.
Despite the bitter internal rivalry, the Chassidishe factions have already held discussions about running together in the upcoming election.
Within Ger, meanwhile, the Gerer Rebbe is expected to keep Knesset member Yitzchok Goldknopf in his position, along with Goldknopf’s longtime close aide, Motti Babchik.
For now, therefore, the most likely outcome remains another joint Degel HaTorah-Agudas Yisroel ticket.
But if Degel’s emerging strategy is any indication, another joint run does not necessarily mean a return to business as usual. The Litvishe faction appears determined to use the threat of going it alone to rewrite the internal balance of power — and force its Chassidishe partners to prove at the ballot box just how many votes they actually bring to the table.
{Matzav.com}
