Democrats have approved a dramatically reshaped presidential primary calendar for 2028, placing South Carolina first and requiring White House hopefuls to begin their campaigns in states where Black and Latino voters, organized labor and other key Democratic constituencies will play a major role.
Under the schedule approved by the Democratic National Committee at its meeting in Texas, South Carolina will hold the opening contest on Jan. 22, 2028, with Nevada following on Feb. 1. New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan and Virginia will then hold their contests during February, while Iowa loses the prominent position it traditionally held at the front of the nominating process.
DNC Chairman Ken Martin said the new sequence is intended to ensure that whoever emerges as the Democratic nominee has demonstrated an ability to appeal to different groups of voters across the country.
To prevail in November, Martin said, “You have to be battle-tested in a way that you already have campaigned in front of and for the support of various communities throughout the country.”
Martin said in an interview that the need to expose presidential contenders to a broad range of constituencies early in the race was a central reason for the party’s decision to adopt the new calendar.
Several Democrats viewed as possible contenders in what could become a crowded 2028 field have already traveled to early-primary states, including South Carolina. Democratic officials contend that the new lineup will better position the eventual nominee for the general election following President Donald Trump’s second term.
Democratic strategist Karen Finney, a veteran of several presidential campaigns, said candidates will now have to demonstrate their appeal across very different regions and demographic groups.
“They have to show that they can go to the South and talk to Black voters and rural voters, as well as out west, talking ranching and mining issues, to a border state, to union members,” Finney said. “Whoever survives will be battle-tested.”
Howard Dean, the former Vermont governor and presidential candidate who later chaired the DNC, recalled the period when Democrats established Nevada and South Carolina as important early contests following Iowa and New Hampshire. He argued that the newly approved arrangement represents an improvement over that system.
“These states look more like the country,” Dean said of the new lineup, “whereas Iowa and New Hampshire don’t.”
Not everyone welcomed the shakeup. Iowa Democratic Party Chair Rita Hart argued that removing Iowa from the opening group would diminish the influence of voters in her state while potentially handing Republicans an advantage. The GOP is expected to continue giving Iowa a prominent position in its own nominating calendar.
South Carolina has already demonstrated its ability to dramatically influence Democratic presidential contests. The state’s first-in-the-South primary proved more consequential than Iowa or New Hampshire for Barack Obama in 2008, Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020. Each benefited from strong support among South Carolina’s sizable Black electorate, which can account for more than half of Democratic primary voters in the state.
Following South Carolina with Nevada and New Mexico will also force candidates to compete for Latino support much earlier than under previous primary schedules.
Party strategists say eliminating Iowa and New Hampshire from their traditional dominant positions does not necessarily prevent lesser-known contenders from generating early momentum. Pete Buttigieg, then a 37-year-old former mayor, used strong performances in Iowa and New Hampshire in 2020 to propel himself into the national spotlight. Under the new arrangement, however, candidates seeking a similar breakthrough will have to do so before a substantially more diverse electorate.
“If you can’t go to every part of this country and make your case, you should not be running for president,” Finney said.
The revamped calendar could also affect the ideological battle between the Democratic Party’s progressive wing and its more mainstream liberal faction, although party figures disagree over precisely how that dynamic will play out.
Boyd Brown, a former DNC member from South Carolina, suggested that Democratic primary voters in his state may approach the contest differently from voters in some northern states.
“I think our primary voters up north are probably a little different than primary voters in South Carolina,” Brown said. “It’s not the woke ideologies that we just can’t get away from” in other places.
Nina Smith, who advised Buttigieg and now works closely with progressive organizations, offered a different assessment. She noted that Black voters in South Carolina have often rallied around candidates perceived as more moderate, including when they backed Clinton and Biden over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders in two presidential cycles.
At the same time, Smith argued, “Southern Black voters are more progressive than they’re given credit for” when it comes to policy, while also being “realists” about the political limits candidates face.
“Living through Jim Crow and other oppressive structures will force you to be take that approach,” she said.
With South Carolina launching the process and numerous other Southern states preparing to vote on Super Tuesday shortly after the early-state contests conclude, Smith said progressive candidates will have to spend time hearing directly from Black voters and adjusting how they communicate their agendas.
“A lot of Black voters don’t necessarily see themselves in the ideas and arguments that progressives put forward,” she said.
Organized labor will also have considerable influence under the new schedule. Nevada is home to powerful unions representing workers in Las Vegas’ service economy, while Michigan’s labor movement is closely tied to the automobile industry and related manufacturing sectors. Virginia, meanwhile, has more federal employees than any other state.
“Labor is still so important,” Dean said.
Presidential campaigns are expected not only to compete for union endorsements, but also to rely on organized labor to help communicate the Democratic message and mobilize voters during both the primaries and general election.
The broader early-state calendar could also change how campaigns allocate their most limited resource: a candidate’s time. Presidential hopefuls must juggle in-person campaigning, fundraising, media appearances and extensive travel, and western states such as Nevada have sometimes received less attention because candidates based in the eastern United States concluded that the travel commitment was too great.
With two western states now included in the early lineup, campaigns will have more opportunities to combine stops and make those trips worthwhile.
Candidates traveling west could campaign in Nevada and New Mexico while adding fundraising events in donor-rich California. A South Carolina trip could be paired with fundraisers or campaign appearances in Atlanta, Charlotte and Raleigh. Virginia provides easy access to Washington’s national television studios and donors, while candidates headed for New Hampshire could incorporate a stop in New York City.
Bre Maxwell, a South Carolina member of the DNC, said her state’s relatively compact geography and comparatively inexpensive media market could also help candidates without enormous campaign war chests compete with better-funded rivals.
“They can campaign from the top to the bottom in a day,” Maxwell said.
The calendar also has potential implications beyond the Democratic primaries. Five of the six states selected for the early window — every state except South Carolina — have been competitive in recent general elections.
As a result, before the campaign even reaches Super Tuesday, Democratic presidential contenders will already have invested significant money, staff and candidate time in states representing a combined 43 Electoral College votes. A presidential candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the White House.
Early-state campaigning can also have an impact beyond state borders because television advertising and media coverage frequently spill into neighboring states. South Carolina media markets, for example, can reach voters in portions of North Carolina and Georgia.
Brown said that whatever internal disputes arise over the calendar, the ultimate purpose of the primary process is electoral victory in November.
“This is not a social or a debate club. It is a political party,” he said.
{Matzav.com}
