Professor With History Of Predicting Elections Says Trump Will Lose


American University professor Allan Lichtman, who has a record of accurately predicting presidential races, said he expects former Vice President Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, to defeat President Trump in November.

Lichtman was one of the few forecasters who predicted the Trump’s election in 2016. Over decades of observing presidential politics, he has developed a system of 13 “key factors” to help determine whether the party in the White House will maintain its hold. The factors range from whether the party has an incumbent president running to short- and long-term economic conditions.

“The keys predict that Trump will lose the White House,” the professor said in a video op-ed published by The New York Times on Wednesday.

Read more at The Hill.



  1. “IF” he was right until now – he will be wrong this time !!!!!!!!!!!!!
    the silent majority and every legal American citizen who cares about Americans will VOTE FOR TRUMP FOR
    he has been the greatest President in this century !!!!!!!!!!!

  2. If you watch the video, it comes down to a difference of 1 key to swing his prediction. Two points:
    1) One of his keys is if the incumbent president has charisma. That being quite a subjective observation, and he declares ‘no’. Now whether you support Trump or not, I would image the vast majority would agree that he is a character with an attitude that appeals to a large segment of society. He was a TV personality for years before this for crying out loud!
    2) The professor himself says at the end of the video that this year there are many outside factors besides for his keys that will influence this outcome, so it’s silly to publicise the outcome of his keys in the first place.

    For goodness sake!

  3. Even if he is correct at this time (debatable), election day is still app. three months away, and by that time the matzav could have changed.

  4. everyone has a history of predicting elections, but not everyone has a history of getting them right. anyways who cares what he says, another guy with a history said he will win. so its a tray vitray and trump is already muchzik as the president so he will automatically win.

  5. How could you know. Mr. Trump spent his time in office wise. The cost of a tweet is more than the pink rose in the coat of matilda. We can see a humor if daring this Biden wants the office. I want to hear some Delaware jokes.

  6. Anyone who quotes New York Times as a news source is being dishonest . NYT is in the business of entertaining their extreme left wing liberal subscribers. It is an entertainment organization. Their business model demands that they publish only extreme left wing propoganda. They have no reason to publish anything that doesn’t make their subscribers feel good.

  7. he is so arrogant he thinks he cant make a mistake , Trump takes winning very seriously,and will prove them all wrong , again!
    He knows better than anyone how to come back from a bankruptcy, which is exactly what our economy needs now!


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