By Brig.-Gen. (res.) Yossi Kuperwasser
The purpose of the Iran nuclear deal in the eyes of the Iranians is to allow Iran to have a nuclear arsenal in 15 years. The archives of the Iranian nuclear program that Israel acquired prove that it was a military program. The documents show that they were ordered by the leadership to produce five nuclear bombs in the first stage.
Notably, it was Israeli intelligence, not the IAEA, which found the trove of documents. This shows that there is no real monitoring of the agreement by IAEA. There is no access by the IAEA monitoring teams to the scientists. In addition, now that Iran controls another country that is not subject to any kind of monitoring – Syria – they can take their scientists, move them into Syria, and do whatever they like there. There’s no limitation on what they can do outside of Iran.
The Obama administration said that under this agreement, it is going to take them a year before they are going to have enough fissile material for a first bomb. Yet the Iranians are now saying that within two weeks they can come back to production of 20%-enriched uranium. The Iranians had 19,000 centrifuges, 13,000 of which were put in Hall B in Natanz, which is two meters away from where they were before. They were not dismantled. They were disassembled, so they can put them all together within no time and have 19,000 centrifuges working.
The only question becomes whether it will take them six or seven months before they have enough fissile material for a bomb. They have already started developing more advanced centrifuges that will shorten the time even more.
The writer was formerly director general of the Israel Ministry of Strategic Affairs and head of the Research Division of IDF Military Intelligence. This is from his presentation at the Jerusalem Center this month.