A newly released Siena College poll suggests Republican gubernatorial candidate Bruce Blakeman is performing better at this stage of the campaign than Lee Zeldin did four years ago, fueling hopes among Republicans that New York’s race for governor could become one of the nation’s most closely watched contests.
The survey, conducted in early August among likely voters, shows Gov. Kathy Hochul holding a 10-point advantage over Blakeman, leading 49% to 39%. While the incumbent remains ahead, the poll places Blakeman in a stronger position than Zeldin occupied at the same point during the 2022 campaign.
In August 2022, Siena polling found Hochul leading then-Long Island Congressman Lee Zeldin—now administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency—by 14 points, 53% to 39%, among likely voters.
Although Hochul enjoyed that larger lead heading into the final months of the campaign, she ultimately defeated Zeldin by just six percentage points, 53% to 47%.
“With less than three months till Election Day, Hochul holds a 10-point lead over Blakeman, 49-39%, not crossing the magic 50% mark,” said Siena pollster Steven Greenberg.
“The race is already competitive,” he added.
New Yorkers are scheduled to vote for governor on Nov. 3.
The poll also found that Hochul’s margin is narrower than those enjoyed by other Democratic incumbents seeking statewide office.
Attorney General Letitia James, who is seeking a third term, leads Republican challenger and former federal prosecutor Saritha Komatireddy by 18 points, 54% to 36%, among likely voters.
Meanwhile, four-term State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli holds a commanding 55% to 32% advantage over Republican challenger Joseph Hernandez.
According to the survey, Hochul’s strongest support continues to come from women and Black voters.
Among female voters, the governor leads Blakeman by 19 percentage points, 56% to 37%, while the race among men is essentially even.
The poll also shows Hochul holding a 60-point advantage among Black voters.
In New York City, the Democratic governor enjoys an overwhelming lead, outpacing Blakeman by 45 points, 64% to 19%.
Blakeman’s strongest performance comes in the suburbs, where he leads Hochul 49% to 41%, while voters in upstate New York are evenly divided between the two candidates.
The survey also found that Blakeman performs relatively well among religious voters, holding an advantage among Catholics and receiving support from 42% of Jewish voters, a voting bloc that has traditionally leaned Democratic. Blakeman is Jewish.
Despite the encouraging numbers for Republicans, the poll indicates Hochul continues to hold an advantage on several key issues.
When asked who would do a better job increasing affordable housing, 51% of likely voters chose Hochul, compared to 35% who selected Blakeman.
On the issue of lowering the cost of living, respondents also gave Hochul a modest edge, with 48% saying she would do a better job compared to 41% for Blakeman.
Public safety remains one of the closest issues in the race, with 47% of voters saying Hochul would do a better job keeping New Yorkers safe, while 44% favored Blakeman.
Other recent surveys commissioned by Republican-aligned organizations have suggested an even tighter contest.
A poll conducted last month for the pro-Blakeman “Strong and Safe” Super PAC showed Hochul leading by just four points, 47% to 43%.
Another survey, conducted by the polling firm co/efficient for the conservative-leaning Coalition to Protect Nassau Taxpayers, found Hochul ahead by six points, 47% to 41%.
The Siena College survey interviewed 811 likely voters between Aug. 3 and Aug. 6 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.
{Matzav.com}
