How An ‘October Surprise’ Could Impact The 2024 Election, According To Polling ‘Nostradamus’

A prominent presidential historian and professor, known for accurately predicting nine of the last ten U.S. elections, has stated that an “October surprise” will not change his forecast that Kamala Harris will emerge victorious in the 2024 presidential race.

Dr. Allan Lichtman, a professor at American University, had already predicted in early September that the Democratic candidate would defeat former President Donald Trump in the upcoming election.

Lichtman remains confident in his prediction, even if a major scandal or revelation involving either candidate were to surface this month, less than 30 days before the November 5th Election Day.

“One of the greatest myths of American politics is the October surprise,” the well-known historian told CNN’s Michael Smerconish. “I have never changed my prediction in response to an October surprise because the keys gauged the big picture of incumbent governance in strength and don’t sway by the events of the campaign.”

Lichtman, 77, refers to his system of “keys,” which consists of 13 factors that he uses to evaluate the likelihood of a candidate’s success in securing the presidency.

Back in September, Lichtman stated that Harris holds the advantage in eight of the 13 keys, while Trump has only three.

His assertion that the “October surprise” is more myth than reality is supported by some historical evidence.

One of the most infamous “October surprises” occurred just a month before the 2016 election, when the Access Hollywood tape surfaced, in which Trump made inflammatory remarks. Despite the damaging nature of the tape, Trump still won the 2016 election, as predicted by Lichtman’s system.

Lichtman, who is a registered Democrat, claims to have successfully predicted the winner of every U.S. presidential election since 1984, though critics have pointed out some nuances in his record.

For example, in 2000, he predicted that Al Gore would win, basing this on Gore’s popular vote victory, even though George W. Bush won the Electoral College and became president.

However, Lichtman did not apply the same reasoning in 2016, when he predicted Trump would win despite losing the popular vote to Hillary Clinton.

Lichtman has maintained his prediction methods for four decades, and he is not wavering in his forecast that Harris will triumph this time around.

That said, he continues to urge the public to make their voices heard at the polls next month.

“The outcome is up to you, so get out and vote,” he previously emphasized.

In recent polling, Harris holds a slim lead over Trump, with a 2-percentage point advantage in multi-candidate races, according to the latest RealClearPolitics aggregate.

{Matzav.com}