Republicans Move Closer To House Majority, But Democrats Show Strength

Republicans moved closer to winning control of the U.S. House Tuesday night, even as Democrats showed some early strength in competitive races across the Eastern Seaboard, raising their hopes of limiting GOP gains.

The U.S. Senate, meanwhile, remained up for grabs as both parties held onto competitive states, with Republican author J.D. Vance winning in Ohio, Rep. Ted Budd (R) claiming North Carolina and Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) winning reelection.

The preliminary results confirmed pre-election day polling that showed a closely-divided country, with enthusiastic voters on both sides of the partisan divide. Republican efforts to use concerns over inflation and crime to strike deep into Democratic territory ran up against Democratic backlash against the new restrictions on abortion and concern about GOP extremism. Unlike past midterms, which brought massive swings in political power to Washington, this year’s elections might be headed toward a modest movement.

While many key races across the country remained unsettled early Wednesday, the GOP notched key House wins in Florida, where they benefited from retirements and redistricting. And they picked up a battleground district in Virginia held by Rep. Elaine Luria (D).

But elsewhere in Virginia, Democrats held a hotly contested seat held by Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.) and Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D-Va.) prevailed in a district where Republicans hoped to march deep into blue territory. Democrats picked up a House seat in North Carolina and prevented a flip in deep-blue Rhode Island.

Strategists in both parties said they expected Republicans to reclaim the House once all votes are counted, but talk of a massive GOP sweep had all but evaporated early Wednesday.

The battle for the Senate, fought largely on Democratic terrain, was widely seen as more competitive, after many Republican candidates had fought to a virtual draw heading into Tuesday against more established Democrats with much deeper advertising budgets in states such as Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona. Control of the chamber might not be clear for days – or weeks, with the possibility of a December runoff in Georgia.

A Republican takeover in even one chamber of Congress would complicate Biden’s agenda for the next two years. House Republicans have signaled their intent to launch a series of investigations into issues ranging from the U.S. coronavirus response to the business dealings of Biden’s son, Hunter Biden. If handed the reins of power in the Senate, the GOP could make confirming Biden Cabinet officials and judges more difficult and wield more leverage in potential showdowns over spending.

As voters decided whether to break Democrats’ grip on power in Washington, Republicans were aiming to increase their hold on governor’s mansions around the country, with incumbent Democrats looking to hold off GOP challenges in Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and more. Democrats also faced surprisingly strong challenges for the governor’s mansions in Oregon and New York, while Republicans lost control in Massachusetts and Maryland. In Maryland, former nonprofit chief Wes Moore, a Democrat, defeated far-right Republican Dan Cox to become the first Black person elected governor in the history of the state.

Republicans clinched statewide victories in Florida, notching early if expected wins in the Senate and governor’s races. Elsewhere, the future of abortion laws was on the ballot in some states, including in Michigan, where there was a closely watched measure to determine whether to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution.

All told, Republicans spent $359 million on broadcast advertising aimed at framing the contest as a referendum on Democratic policies around crime and inflation, while Democrats pushed back with $422 million in ads largely focused on Republican efforts to ban access to abortion and more broadly on what they cast as GOP extremism, according to AdImpact, which tracks television and digital political ads.

The starkly contrasting visions for the country were evident in interviews with voters from the East Coast to the Southwest. In Northern Virginia, a traditionally Democratic area, Niaz Ali, 29, walked out of an elementary school after casting his ballot and stopped to take a selfie. He wanted to record the day when he switched parties, from Democrat to Republican.

Ali, who is from Pakistan, said he has long supported Democrats but has lately been frustrated by inflation and illegal immigration. “They [messed up] everything,” he said of Democrats. “We need Trump back.” Ali voted for the Republican running against Spanberger, Yesli Vega, even though he said he didn’t know anything about her.

About a third of voters said inflation was the biggest issue affecting their vote, according to early network exit polls. That was more than other issues such as crime, gun policy and immigration, and just a bit higher than abortion. About three-quarters of voters said things in the country were headed in the wrong direction, according to a preliminary voter poll.

In Phoenix, Matt Kroski said he was voting against candidates on the right more than anything else, voicing worries about GOP efforts chipping away at abortion rights and eroding democratic guardrails. Kroski, 43, usually votes early, but after seeing reports of armed observers at local ballot drop boxes, he decided to cast his ballot in-person on Election Day.

“It’s just voter intimidation,” he said. “Emotionally, it made me fearful, because it’s our one chance to make our voice heard.”

Heading into Tuesday, historical precedent suggested Democrats were in for a tough night. Presidents with approval ratings below 50 percent, such as Biden, have seen their party lose an average of 37 House seats in midterm years, according to Gallup. For presidents above 50 percent, the losses tend to be far lighter – 14 seats on average.

While some House races could take days to clarify, strategists of both parties were watching some East Coast contests for early clues.

In Virginia, Luria (D), a former Navy commander, lost in a district that narrowly favored Biden in 2020 but swung dramatically toward GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) last year. A prominent member of House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, Luria fell to Republican Jen Kiggans, a state lawmaker who also served in the Navy.

Spanberger (D), a former CIA officer, defeated Vega, a county supervisor, in a district that Biden carried by seven points. And Wexton, a former prosecutor, beat Republican and retired Navy captain Hung Cao in an area where Biden trounced Trump by 18 points.

House Democrats also dashed Republicans’ goal of flipping a Rhode Island district, as Allan Fung (R), the former mayor of Cranston, lost to Seth Magaziner (D).

Some Democrats prevailed in purple or red-leaning districts. Rep. Sharice Davids (D) survived a tossup race in Kansas. In Ohio, Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) held onto a district Trump won by 3 points in 2020, aided by a flawed GOP opponent, J.R. MajewskiThe National Republican Campaign Committee pulled ads for Majewski after the Associated Press reported he had misrepresented his military service.

At the same time, Democrats lost control of two Florida House seats held by members who declined to seek reelection: Rep. Stephanie Murphy (D) and Charlie Crist, the Democratic nominee for governor. Rep. Al Lawson (D) also lost in a newly drawn district that made for a tougher reelection.

Democrats entered the day staring down several possible losses in New York, typically a stronghold for the party – including the House seat of Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D), the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

A Maloney loss to Republican state Assemblyman Mike Lawler – in a seat that Biden would have carried by 10 points in 2020 – would make him the first sitting DCCC chair to lose his seat since 1992. Republicans amped up their investment in the race in October as they grew increasingly bullish about seizing previously blue territory.

With most votes tallied, New York Gov. Kathy Hochul led Rpublican Rep. Lee Zeldin (R-N.Y.), who surge in the final weeks while hammering Hochul on crime he blames on liberal policies and leadership.

Americans cast their votes with the 2024 presidential election already looming, as Trump strongly hinted this week that he would launch another bid for the White House soon and sent Republicans scrambling to keep him from upending their prospects in the midterms.

In a Fox News interview the evening before the midterms, Trump said House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) has his support for speaker if the GOP retakes the House, and he harshly criticized Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.).

“I think we’ll probably have to live with him for two years,” Trump said.

Biden, who has warned of government shutdowns and potential breakdowns of democratic norms if Republicans prevail, has also said he intends to seek another term. But Tuesday’s results will hang over his efforts to rally a party that has shown some signs of interest in fresh leadership. Biden on Tuesday thanked Democratic leaders for their work on the election.

Other possible 2024 presidential contenders such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) were on the ballot Tuesday after campaigns that highlighted their national ambitions. DeSantis, whose simmering rivalry with Trump has become increasingly public, won a decisive victory Tuesday over Crist, a Republican-turned-Democrat former governor and congressman, in a state where Democrats have grown increasingly gloomy about their ability to compete.

DeSantis’s administration on Tuesday blocked the Department of Justice from accessing polling places in South Florida, calling federal involvement “counterproductive” and saying it would send its own monitors. Other battles over the voting process itself played out across the country, with election officials urging patience with results and seeking to preempt baseless suggestions of malfeasance.

Some Republicans had long feared their Senate candidates – many were inexperienced and propelled to victory in their primaries by Trump – would dash their chances of seizing back the chamber in a favorable year. But those concerns eased as party loyalty kicked in for more Republicans this fall and as economic worries drew more middle-of-the-road voters toward the GOP.

Mary and Jeff King said they voted for Republican J.D. Vance in Ohio’s Senate race – even as Mary called Vance a “liar” and said, “I don’t think he’ll live up to any of the promises he made.”

“It’s more important to defeat the Democrats,” said Jeff, who went on to explain that as a Catholic, the number one issue driving his vote is abortion. “I’d like to see a complete ban in Ohio.”

Vance, a Trump critic-turned-champion, defeated an unexpectedly competitive challenge from Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan in Ohio, where Trump won by eight points in 2020. In Florida, another state that has trended toward the GOP, Sen. Marco Rubio (R) defeated Democrat Val Demings, a former police chief, despite being vastly outspent.

In Colorado, meanwhile, Sen. Michael Bennet (D) prevailed over Republican Joe O’Dea, who has criticized Trump and positioned himself as a moderate. That allayed some Democratic fears that strong GOP candidates in blue-leaning Colorado and Washington state could ride a red wave to upset victories.

In Georgia, Sen. Raphael G. Warnock (D) slightly trailed GOP nominee Herschel Walker on Tuesday night with close to 90 percent of the vote counted. But Walker, a former football player and first-time candidate, was just shy of the 50 percent threshold required to avoid a runoff. Walker has remained competitive despite mounting personal scandals, including accusations of domestic violence and claims by two former girlfriends that he pressured them to have abortions, despite supporting strict bans on the procedure while campaigning. Walker has denied the abortion claims.

In Pennsylvania, Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman faced GOP nominee Mehmet Oz, a celebrity doctor, in a tight race for the seat held by retiring Republican Sen. Patrick J. Toomey (R). Nevada Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D), the first Latina elected to the Senate, entered the day in a toss-up race with GOP challenger Adam Laxalt, a former state attorney general and Trump campaign official who played a prominent role in the former president’s false claims of widespread election fraud.

In Arizona, Sen. Mark Kelly (D) faced Republican Blake Masters, a venture capitalist boosted by his mentor Peter Thiel, the conservative tech billionaire. In New Hampshire, which Biden won by about seven points, Hassan was trying fended off GOP nominee Don Bolduc, an Army veteran whom Republican leaders worked to defeat in the primary because they viewed him as less electable.

And in North Carolina, a purple state where Democrats have repeatedly fallen short, Budd triumphed in an open Senate race with Democrat Cheri Beasley, a former chief justice of the state’s Supreme Court.

Voters around the country also weighed ballot measures to change election rules, legalize recreational marijuana and remove constitutional language allowing slavery as punishment in prisons, among other changes.

Several states also put abortion rights to a direct vote. In Michigan, voters weighed in on a ballot measure to guarantee abortion access in the state constitution, as the state’s near-total ban on the procedure from 1931 remains blocked by the courts. The measure was expected to boost Democratic turnout as Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) faced Republican Tudor Dixon, a former conservative commentator.

In Wisconsin, Republican gubernatorial candidate Tim Michels conceded to Gov. Tony Evers (D) in another state where an old abortion ban – this one dating to 1849 – thrust the issue into the spotlight. Republicans had hoped angst over the economy and crime would still push them to victory. Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) was in a tight race with Republican nominee Joe Lombardo, the sheriff of the state’s biggest county.

Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt (R) defeated Democrat Joy Hofmeister, a former Republican and top education official in the state. Stitt, a citizen of Cherokee Nation, was unexpectedly vulnerable this year after clashing bitterly with Native tribes.

The Democratic gubernatorial nominee in Georgia, Stacey Abrams conceded to Gov. Brian Kemp (R), who has retained solid conservative support despite clashing with Trump. Kemp beat Abrams by little more than 1 point in 2018.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) also beat back a challenge from another Democratic star of the 2018 midterms, former congressman Beto O’Rourke. Four years ago, O’Rourke came within a few points of Sen. Ted Cruz (R) in the red-leaning state.

In key states around the country, GOP candidates who have denied the 2020 election results were in contention to oversee the voting process. Strategists from both parties agreed that a strong evening nationally for Republicans could lift even these extreme candidates to victory, alarming those who fear a repeat of GOP officials’ baseless efforts in 2020 to overturn election results.

(c) 2022, The Washington Post · Hannah Knowles, Michael Scherer