John Bolton is sharply criticizing President Donald Trump’s handling of Venezuela following the removal of Nicolás Maduro, arguing that the administration squandered a historic opportunity by leaving much of the Chavista power structure intact instead of pushing aggressively for democratic elections and the return of opposition leader María Corina Machado.
In an opinion piece published Wednesday in The Hill, Trump’s onetime national security adviser applauded the Jan. 3 US military mission that captured Maduro and removed him from power, describing the operation as “brilliantly successful.”
Bolton contended, however, that the administration failed to capitalize politically on that dramatic military victory and instead pursued a deeply misguided approach to Venezuela’s future.
“Tragically, however, the Trump administration’s underlying political strategy was flawed from the start,” Bolton wrote.
“Maduro’s removal changed only the corrupt regime’s public face.”
Maduro was captured during the January US operation and transported to the United States, where he remains imprisoned while facing federal criminal charges.
But the Venezuelan government did not undergo a wholesale transformation following his removal. Delcy Rodríguez, Maduro’s vice president and a longtime figure in the governments of both Hugo Chávez and Maduro, took over the presidency, allowing much of the Chavista political establishment to remain in power.
Questions about what would replace Maduro surfaced almost immediately in Congress following the US operation, with lawmakers drawing particular attention to Rodríguez’s history as a hard-line member of the existing regime.
Bolton said the administration should now shift course by making free and democratic elections the central objective of American policy. A critical part of that strategy, he argued, would be ensuring that Machado, the opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate, can safely return to Venezuela and participate openly in its political life.
“The real centerpiece, however, is Machado’s return home,” Bolton wrote.
If the Trump administration truly possesses the leverage over Caracas that it has suggested, Bolton argued, Washington should be capable of guaranteeing the safety of Machado and other Venezuelan opposition figures.
His criticism comes as scrutiny intensifies over the administration’s approach to Venezuela’s political and economic transition, including its management of the country’s vast petroleum sector and the expanding influence of Venezuelan businessman Alejandro Betancourt Lopez, who has close ties to Maduro.
Recent reports by Bloomberg, Fortune and The Times of London have said Secretary of State Marco Rubio enlisted Betancourt as an intermediary as the administration attempts to encourage US companies to invest in Venezuela’s oil industry.
According to The Times, Betancourt had previously been investigated in Europe over money-laundering allegations. He has not been convicted of wrongdoing and has maintained that his business dealings are legitimate.
Questions have also emerged about the transparency of the investment process, with reports indicating that major agreements have moved forward without being subjected to competitive bidding.
For Bolton, however, concerns surrounding particular oil agreements are merely one element of a much larger problem. He argued that while Washington successfully removed Maduro himself, it failed to dismantle the political and economic machinery that allowed his government to maintain control.
Bolton characterized Maduro’s capture as an extraordinary military achievement that failed to produce genuine regime change. Although he again described the Jan. 3 mission as “brilliantly successful,” he said Maduro’s longtime allies were subsequently permitted to retain substantial control over the country.
He also urged Washington to fully embrace Machado and facilitate her return to Venezuela, where she must be able to engage in “free, open political activity without intimidation.” Bolton accused Rubio of committing a serious strategic mistake by excluding Machado from negotiations over the country’s electoral future.
Genuinely competitive elections, Bolton argued, should now become Washington’s overriding objective. He warned against portraying cooperation with Rodríguez as proof that Venezuela has undergone a successful transition when key elements of the previous government continue to wield power.
Bolton singled out Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello as another major impediment to democratic change. Cabello remains among the most powerful holdovers from the previous government, while the pro-regime motorcycle organizations known as colectivos continue operating. Bolton maintained that real democratization will require Cabello’s removal as well as the dismantling of the colectivos.
He further called on Washington to insist on verifiable proof that the remaining Cuban intelligence and security personnel operating in Venezuela have left the country.
Bolton also raised concerns about the handling of Venezuela’s oil revenues. Approximately $13 billion in petroleum proceeds has passed through an offshore US account, he said, but questions remain about where those funds ultimately end up once they reach Venezuela’s central bank. With Chavista officials still controlling the central bank, Bolton warned that the money could ultimately help strengthen the very political system Washington had sought to dislodge.
At the same time, the enormous wave of American oil investment initially envisioned following Maduro’s capture has yet to emerge. Major US energy companies remain reluctant to commit billions of dollars without dependable property rights, legal protections and the rule of law. More than seven months after Maduro was seized, reports this month indicated that major petroleum agreements have remained difficult to secure.
The battle over Venezuela’s oil sector could assume even greater significance as the political debate over the country’s future unfolds.
Venezuela holds some of the largest proven petroleum reserves anywhere in the world, and Trump initially presented Maduro’s removal as an opportunity to unleash substantial American investment, dramatically expand Venezuelan oil production and potentially help drive down energy costs.
Reviving the country’s battered petroleum industry, however, would require enormous amounts of investment. Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, PDVSA, also continues to play a central role in deciding which companies are permitted to operate and under what conditions.
Bolton argued that no amount of economic maneuvering can replace the fundamental political changes necessary to transform Venezuela.
“Political liberty and economic recovery in Venezuela will come through pressure,” he wrote, “not through the beneficence of the Chavista regime.”
Bolton warned that Trump now faces the possibility that one of his administration’s most dramatic military victories could ultimately fail to produce meaningful political change. Maduro may be imprisoned in the United States, but much of the system that kept him and Chávez in power remains intact.
Unless the administration changes direction and makes Machado, Venezuela’s democratic opposition and genuinely free elections the foundation of US policy, Bolton argued, Washington risks allowing the extraordinary opportunity created by Maduro’s removal to slip away.
{Matzav.com}
